Can gold price hold $4,037 support as sellers pressure the market?

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Gold slides 1.15% today to $4,082

Highlights

Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Houthi movements have increased safe-haven inflows into Gold, supporting defensive asset demand.
Gold continues to attract capital amid broader risk-off sentiment and higher oil prices, though underlying price action remains pressured.
Gold trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum prevailing; price is expected to range between $4,037 and $4,128 over the next days.

Renewed safe-haven inflows as geopolitical tensions drive risk aversion

Safe-haven demand for Gold increased following warnings from former President Trump regarding Iran and Houthi tensions, heightening investor appetite for defensive assets, according to Fxleaders. Reports from Finance Yahoo highlighted renewed safe-haven interest in Gold futures as investor risk aversion intensified in response to ongoing geopolitical threats. Despite an environment of broader risk-off sentiment spurred by regional tensions and higher oil prices, as reported by Fxstreet, Gold continued to attract attention from capital seeking shelter — though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold momentum dominates as intraday resistance caps gold recovery

On the technical front, XAU is trading below its MA-20 at $4,119 and MA-50 at $4,107 on the H1 timeframe, and remains well under the MA-200 at $4,622 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun at $4,119 is acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators including MACD and ADX point to sustained selling pressure, while RSI at 33.13, Stoch RSI, and CCI all signal an oversold environment. Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator confirm that seller momentum is dominant intraday.

Downside bias persists as technical barriers outweigh recovery prospects

Short term, XAU is expected to fluctuate between $4,037 and $4,128 over the next two to three sessions. There is a 38% probability of an upward move and a 62% chance of further declines, suggesting the upside scenario is less likely in the near term. The base case is continued sideways movement within this volatility band; a break above $4,119 resistance could trigger a bullish reversal, while a drop below $4,037 support may accelerate further losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees fundamental and macro forces supporting near-term interest in Gold, with safe-haven demand staying firm after recent geopolitical warnings. He believes ongoing tensions provide a strong sentiment tailwind, even as technical signals indicate that the bears retain control for now. The outlook is constructive, with volatility expected, but confidence in Gold's role as a safeguard remains high. "If Gold can reclaim $4,119 resistance, the path for a bullish reversal is open — until then, I stay attentive to renewed buying interest driven by global risks."

Earlier, analysts noted that renewed geopolitical risks and market volatility continued to underpin gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, despite technical barriers tempering gains. The current environment reinforces that theme, but with increased downside risks now dominating, traders should remain alert for a potential shift in sentiment if gold can reclaim the $4,119 resistance.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.