Downtrend for Silver as trading stays above short and medium averages

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Silver drops 1.04% today to $65.11

Highlights

Silver has experienced a six-year consecutive market deficit as industrial demand continues to outpace mine and scrap supply.
The persistent supply imbalance is structurally supporting silver's underlying value, although prices remain under broader selling pressure.
Silver is expected to trade between $63.66 and $66.56 over the next several days, with technical indicators showing mixed momentum and near-term indecision.

Market deficit sustains value as industrial demand exceeds supply

Persistent high industrial demand has resulted in a six-year consecutive market deficit for silver, according to Businesstoday. This ongoing imbalance reflects consistent consumption outpacing mine and scrap supply, a dynamic that structurally supports the asset over time. The prolonged deficit continues to factor into the underlying value for silver, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum and resistance at Kijun as buying wavers

On the technical front, XAG has closed above its MA-20 and MA-50 on the H4 timeframe, while remaining below the MA-200. The nearest resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $65.13. Among momentum signals, MACD and ADX signal a buying bias, but RSI sits at 49.6 and gives a sell reading. The Stoch RSI indicates oversold conditions and CCI is neutral, signaling short-term weakness without strong directional conviction. Bull/Bear Power reflects seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, pointing to a phase of consolidation and lack of a prevailing clear trend.

Upside favored if resistance clears but downside risk at support

In the short term, XAG/USD is expected to fluctuate between $63.66 and $66.56, staying within this typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward break is calculated at 63%, versus 37% for a decline, suggesting a higher likelihood of stabilizing or modest recovery unless the support at $63.66 is breached. A bullish move would require a sustained breakout above the $65.13 resistance, while any decisive fall below the identified support would signal the start of a retreat.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that silver remains in a protracted market deficit driven by industrial demand, offering fundamental support. Yet, price action is still weighed down by intraday sellers, and momentum signals are mixed. He views the technical picture as lacking conviction while resistance at $65.13 caps the upside for now. "Until silver breaks above $65.13 or loses $63.66, I will stay neutral and wait for a decisive move," Kharitonov says.

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was consolidating in a sideways range, with physical market shifts—especially from India—playing a role in shaping demand and price dynamics. The latest analysis underscores that persistent structural deficits remain an underpinning factor, highlighting the importance of monitoring $65.13 as a key resistance level for any potential upside breakout.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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