Silver price prediction: Breakout setup in focus

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Silver up 2.22% today to $69.6

Highlights

The US Treasury will double its long-term bond buyback operations to a $4 billion maximum per operation from September 9 to November 4, 2026.
This increase in Treasury liquidity is likely to pressure long-term yields lower and support demand for silver as a non-yielding asset.
Silver trades with strong bullish momentum in the short and medium term, with the next price range expected between $68.16 to $71.04 and a high probability of an upward move if $71.04 resistance breaks.

Demand spike as US Treasury buyback spurs bullish sentiment

A major catalyst for the latest gains in silver is the US Treasury's decision to at least double the size of its long-term bond buyback operations, raising the maximum per operation from $2 billion to $4 billion for the period of September 9 to November 4, 2026. This policy move is expected to inject additional liquidity into the market and could put downward pressure on long-term yields, thereby increasing the attractiveness of silver as a non-yielding asset. These developments have been a driving force behind heightened demand for XAG, according to Fxstreet, helping underpin the current bullish sentiment.

Bullish momentum dominates as resistance nears and caution emerges

On the technical side, XAG remains above the MA-20 ($68.65) and MA-50 ($67.21) on the hourly chart, but continues to trade below the long-term MA-200 ($74.52) on the daily timeframe. Immediate support is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $67.83, while resistance is seen at $71.04. Momentum indicators are bullish: MACD and ADX signal strength, RSI stands at 67.66 (Buy), and CCI is overbought. Bull/Bear Power confirms buyer control in intraday momentum, but Stoch RSI is currently neutral, pointing to some caution as the market approaches overbought territory. The Awesome Oscillator also aligns with the ongoing upward push, while minor divergence from Stoch RSI suggests the potential for short-term pauses.

Upside favored as volatility and resistance define near-term range

In the short term, silver is expected to trade within the $68.16 to $71.04 range, reflecting typical volatility at current levels. Current conditions point to a very high probability of an upward move, with downside risk considered minimal. A decisive break above $71.04 would open the way for further gains, while a drop below the $67.83 support would be needed to trigger a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the ongoing rally in silver as heavily influenced by the US Treasury's decision to expand long-term bond buybacks. The technical backdrop remains bullish in the short term, but overbought signals and resistance at $71.04 keep him wary of a reversal. He remains cautious until there is a clear breakout. "Base case remains neutral while silver trades below $71.04; until then, I am watching for signs of exhaustion or a confirmed move higher."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver was benefiting from US Treasury buyback policies, though upside was constrained by longer-term technical resistance. The latest expansion of Treasury bond buybacks and continued momentum above key moving averages reinforce this bullish outlook, making a sustained break above $71.04 an important level for potential further upside.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.