Medium-term support keeps Brent crude under pressure in continued retreat

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Brent crude drops 1.2% today

Highlights

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to raise concerns over the security of global energy supplies.
Brent crude faces increased volatility and risk premiums due to elevated supply disruption risks, but price action remains under selling pressure.
Technicals show short-term weakness despite strong underlying momentum, with an expected four-day trading range of $100.04 to $107.42 and 74% probability for upward movement.

Supply fears and volatility rise amid West Asia tensions

Geopolitical tensions in West Asia have continued to raise concerns over the security of global energy supplies, according to Zeebiz. The potential for supply disruptions in this sensitive region increases volatility and risk premiums for Brent crude, drawing renewed market focus on supply chain stability. Although these developments highlight ongoing supply-side risks, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed momentum signals as support holds above medium-term averages

On the technical front, XBR is positioned just below the MA-20, while holding above the MA-50 on the 4-hour chart and the MA-200 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $102.23 serves as immediate support. MACD on the 4-hour timeframe indicates strong buy momentum and the ADX remains in buying territory, but oscillators present a mixed picture—RSI signals a buy, whereas Stochastic RSI and CCI are neutral. Bull/Bear Power is firmly positive, indicating intraday buyer dominance, yet the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, reflecting a divergence between momentum indicators and current short-term weakness.

Upside bias favored as consolidation range sets scenario

Over the next four days, XBR is expected to consolidate within a trading range of $100.04 to $107.42. There is a 74% probability of an upward move, suggesting that upside scenarios are favored. Should resistance at $107.42 be breached, further gains may unfold, whereas sustained selling below the $102.23 support could open the way toward the lower range boundary near $100.04.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Brent crude retaining robust medium- and long-term momentum despite recent pullbacks. He believes ongoing geopolitical tensions will keep supply-side risks top of mind for the market, supporting renewal of upward interest. The technical outlook supports consolidation with a clear bias toward upside scenarios. "With supply chain risks and strong underlying momentum, I expect Brent crude to press higher if resistance at $107.42 is breached in the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that Brent crude was consolidating with downside risks dominating amid persistent supply and geopolitical concerns. The current outlook strengthens this thesis with additional evidence of heightened volatility, suggesting traders should closely monitor the $102.23 support as a potential inflection point for further movement within the established range.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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