Natural gas is trading around $3.26/MMBtu on September 25 after a sharp surge toward $3.40 followed by a pullback. On the hourly chart, momentum remains noticeably stronger than it was just a few days ago: the price has confidently broken out of its previous range around $2.95–3.05 and is still holding above the medium-term moving averages.
Appalachian disruption drives the latest spike
The main trigger behind the latest spike was supply disruption in the Appalachian region. Columbia Gas Transmission, owned by TC Energy, declared force majeure due to a mechanical issue in West Virginia. Against this backdrop, the market posted its largest one-day gain since January, although part of that move was already retraced on September 25 as traders took profits.
Additional support is coming from LNG. Gas flows to the nine largest U.S. export terminals are averaging around 17.8 Bcf/d in September, compared with 17.2 Bcf/d in August, despite scheduled maintenance at Cove Point.
Storage surplus continues to narrow
The latest EIA report was somewhat neutral to negative for prices. In the week ended September 18, inventories increased by 53 Bcf, versus market expectations of around 50 Bcf, reaching 3.351 Tcf. More important, however, is the trend relative to normal levels: the surplus versus the five-year average narrowed from 118 Bcf to 95 Bcf, while inventories are already 146 Bcf below last year’s level.
In other words, the absolute level of inventories remains comfortable, but the summer surplus is gradually shrinking, making the market more sensitive to any production disruptions or increases in export demand.
The main restraining factor remains the same: production is still very high. Average output in September is estimated at around 112.8 Bcf/d, although some declines have been seen in recent days, primarily in Louisiana and West Virginia. Weather is also becoming a less clear driver: the shift toward more comfortable temperatures is limiting demand from the power sector, while the beginning of the shoulder season traditionally reduces domestic consumption.
$3.22–3.20 becomes the key support zone
Under pressure from profit-taking on long positions, NATGAS prices have pulled back toward support around $3.26 at the moment. This decline, as I warned in Natural gas pulls back from $3.20 again as EIA data come into focus, should be viewed as corrective and as an opportunity to buy at a better price, but a loss of support around $3.22–3.20 could become a warning sign for the bulls.
Latest Natural Gas News
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
