-1.33% for Soybean Futures as China maintains import tariffs on US soybeans

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Soybean Futures fall 1.33% to USX1,275

Highlights

China has kept import tariffs on US soybeans in place, excluding them from recent bilateral tariff relief agreements.
Continued tariff barriers restrict US soybean access to China, suppressing external demand and capping export prospects.
Soybean futures trade below short- and medium-term technical benchmarks with persistent bearish momentum, projected to consolidate between $1,257 and $1,293.

Exports constrained as China excludes soybeans from tariff relief

China has maintained its import tariffs on US soybeans, while the recently agreed tariff relief between China and the United States specifically excluded soybeans, according to Ukragroconsult. This ongoing trade policy maintains higher cost barriers, limiting the ability of US exporters to access the Chinese market, and thereby reduces external demand for US-origin soybeans. The persistent lack of tariff relief continues to weigh on export prospects and acts as a constraining factor for Soybean Futures valuations.

Downtrend momentum as prices hold above long-term support

ZS/USX is trading below both the MA-20 at USX1,295 and MA-50 at USX1,307, but remains above the long-term MA-200 at USX1,195. The Ichimoku Kijun at USX1,300 represents the nearest resistance, while immediate support is identified at USX1,257. On the indicator front, MACD registers a Sell signal and ADX is Neutral, while both RSI and Stoch RSI signal oversold conditions. CCI also indicates a Sell stance. Bull/Bear Power is in oversold territory, showing established seller dominance within intraday activity, and the Awesome Oscillator is aligned with the ongoing downtrend.

Further downside risk as consolidation persists in narrow range

For the next two to three sessions, ZS/USX is expected to move within a range of USX1,257 to USX1,293. The most likely scenario is continued consolidation inside this volatility band relative to current levels, with further downside risk holding a very high probability and only marginal likelihood of a significant upward reversal. A sustained break above USX1,300 resistance would be required for any bullish shift, whereas a decline below USX1,257 would point to extended weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees bearish sentiment prevailing for Soybean Futures as fundamentals remain weak. Technicals confirm seller dominance, with key resistance at USX1,300 capping upside in the near term. Persistent Chinese tariffs and lack of export demand relief limit any room for recovery. "Unless USX1,300 is broken and export dynamics improve, I remain defensive on ZS/USX."

Earlier, analysts noted that Soybean Futures faced ongoing technical pressure with a bias toward sideways to downward movement as market uncertainty persisted. The current environment, marked by reinforced trade barriers and consistent technical weakness, signals that traders should closely monitor for a breakdown below USX1,257, which could prompt further declines.

Source of Data: ZS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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