WTI tests September lows as supply recovery weighs on prices
WTI is trading around $91–92 per barrel on October 2 and has once again approached the lower boundary of its September range. On the hourly chart, the structure remains weak: the price is trading below its main moving averages, while sellers quickly regained control after an unsuccessful attempt to hold above $95–96.
U.S. inventories send mixed signal
U.S. inventory data are giving the market a mixed signal. In the week ending September 25, commercial crude inventories rose by 0.9 million barrels to 427.3 million, although the market had expected a small decline. Cushing inventories increased to 24.3 million barrels, while refinery utilization fell from 94% to 92.5%, so part of the crude naturally remained in storage.
At the same time, the situation with petroleum products is considerably tighter: gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels and distillates by 2.3 million, with distillate stocks remaining about 14% below the five-year average. Therefore, the increase in crude inventories cannot yet be viewed as a sign of a broad supply surplus.
Middle East flows ease immediate shortage fears
The main change in recent days has come from the Middle East. Oil supplies from the region partially recovered in September, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz became more active, reducing the premium for an immediate physical shortage. This is now putting pressure on WTI prices even as military tensions remain elevated.
At the same time, geopolitical risks have not disappeared: attacks on vessels are continuing, the U.S. is increasing its military presence in the region, while the normalization of petroleum product exports is lagging noticeably behind the recovery in crude shipments. As a result, the market could quickly restore the geopolitical premium if the situation around Iran or the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates again.
$91 support becomes critical for next move
The medium-term balance remains contradictory. In its September outlook, the IEA expects global oil demand to decline by around 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while at the same time estimating a drop in global supply of roughly 5.7 million barrels per day because of disruptions in the Middle East.
This means that even with weaker demand, the market’s safety cushion remains limited. For WTI, the key factor now is not the level of geopolitical tension itself, but how quickly actual oil flows continue to recover.
For now, pressure on WTI remains, but as long as support around $91.40–91.20 continues to contain the bears, the chances of a recovery toward $95.00–96.00 will remain high. A loss of this support, as stated in WTI correction deepens as U.S. inventories rise, would open the way toward the psychological $90.00 level.
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