Gold price forecast: $4,160 support in focus as XAU remains flat

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Gold slides 0.94% today to $4,171

Highlights

Gold buying persisted for a third session amid a weaker US dollar and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, supporting its safe-haven appeal.
Institutional demand from central bank buying and dedollarisation continues to support gold as a strategic diversification asset.
Gold settled at $4,171, trading between $4,104 and $4,237 is expected next, with consolidation likely and a 52% probability of a downward move.

Safe-haven flows and dedollarisation support gold amid ceasefire news

Gold drew continued buying interest for a third consecutive session, a trend linked by FXStreet to a softer US dollar and sustained geopolitical uncertainty. Central bank purchases and dedollarisation, as noted by FXStreet, have provided ongoing foundational support through institutional demand and diversification away from the dollar. Investor sentiment was further shaped by the announcement of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by US President Donald Trump, as reported by Econotimes. These combined factors have reinforced gold's strategic position as both a safe-haven and an asset benefiting from shifting macro trends, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Divergent technical signals as mixed momentum contrasts buyer strength

On the h4 timeframe, XAU is trading below the MA-20 but remains above the MA-50, with the long-term MA-200 positioned overhead. The immediate support is outlined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $4,160, while momentum indicators provide a mixed technical picture: MACD and ADX register strong buy signals, and the RSI points to further upside, but Stochastic RSI shows oversold conditions and the CCI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power is overbought, indicating dominant buyer pressure, resulting in divergence among oscillators as overbought Bull/Bear Power contrasts with the oversold Stoch RSI and neutral CCI.

Consolidation bias as volatility narrows range and bearish risk edges up

Over the next two to three trading days, XAU is expected to range between $4,104 and $4,237 based on typical volatility. The current scenario favors consolidation within this band, with a 52% probability weighting to a downward move versus 48% for an upside move. If resistance is breached, a bullish scenario would develop, while a drop below the $4,160 support would set up a bearish outlook.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, notes that gold's strategic position is underpinned by persistent institutional demand and ongoing dedollarisation, but technical signals remain mixed. He sees cause for caution, with buyers still present but price unable to push meaningfully higher as momentum indicators diverge. Near-term movement is likely to stay contained unless gold breaks out from the current consolidation range. "I remain defensive here — until $4,237 is taken out convincingly, I see little reason to chase the upside."

Previously, it was reported that gold prices in Pakistan tracked international bullion market movements, with both gold and silver declining locally in response to global weakness. The current analysis adds a new dimension by highlighting technical divergence and sustained institutional interest, suggesting traders should monitor for a potential breakout from the $4,104–$4,237 consolidation range in the days ahead.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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