Copper remains stable as US tariff risk reshapes warehouse flows

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Copper drops 0.92% today to $6.66

Highlights

Disruptions at Chilean mines, including Antofagasta and Codelco's El Teniente and Centinela, have reduced available copper supply and increased operational risks.
US tariff threats on refined copper have caused shipments to be rerouted into American warehouses, resulting in regional inventory tightness and shifting global supply balances.
Copper trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages, with intraday downside pressure and a projected 59% probability of further declines within a $6.5582 to $6.7702 range.

Global supply tightness deepens as mine disruptions and tariffs disrupt flows

Copper supply has been disrupted by mine interruptions in Chile and at Antofagasta, directly reducing readily available output, according to Bloomberg. Further labor unrest at Codelco's El Teniente and Centinela mines has created additional operational risks, compounding overall supply constraints in the market. Concurrently, US tariff threats on refined copper imports have prompted traders to reroute shipments into American warehouses, causing inventory tightness in other regions and shifting global supply balances, as reported by Globalbankingandfinance. These developments have reshaped the physical copper market landscape, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Technical divergence as oscillators reveal momentum uncertainty near support

On the H4 timeframe, HG is positioned below both the MA-20 and MA-50, while holding above the MA-200 on the daily chart. The immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.649. Oscillator readings present a conflicted picture: MACD and ADX indicate buying conditions, but RSI at 46.87 and CCI both signal selling pressure; Stochastic RSI shows the asset as oversold and Bull/Bear Power continues to point toward buyer dominance. The Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, failing to confirm a clear trend. This divergence in signals highlights significant uncertainty in short- to medium-term momentum.

Sideways bias favored as downside risk outweighs breakout potential

Over the next 2–3 trading days, HG is expected to range between $6.5582 and $6.7702, marking a typical volatility band relative to current levels. Probability-weighted scenarios suggest a 59% chance of a move lower, with an upward reversal less likely at 41%. The baseline scenario anticipates sideways movement within this corridor, while a break above resistance would indicate a bullish turn and a move below the Ichimoku Kijun at $6.649 would signal further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees that copper remains under heavy supply risk due to persistent disruptions and global inventory imbalances. However, technical momentum is weak, with bearish indicators still dominant despite fundamental stress in the raw market. He recommends a defensive tactical stance until the price overcomes key resistance levels. "Any break below $6.649 warns of deeper downside, so I prefer to stay cautious unless momentum shifts decisively."

Previously it was reported that copper showed technical resilience amid looming supply risks and mixed momentum signals. The latest data adds a new dimension by highlighting intensified operational disruptions and shifting inventory flows, making the $6.649 Ichimoku Kijun support a key level to monitor for directional cues in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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