Strike threats and mine disruptions leave copper price consolidating near resistance

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Copper gains 0.78% to $6.77 today

Highlights

Potential strike action at the world's largest copper mine and further disruptions in Chile are heightening concerns about near-term copper supply shortages.
Physical copper inventories remain tight as ongoing supply issues persist, and recent Federal Reserve statements have reduced currency pressures for international buyers.
Copper trades near the daily high at $6.7785 with bullish price trends, an expected range of $6.7255 to $6.8315, and a 78% probability of upward movement despite mixed momentum signals.

Supply risks rise as labor disputes and Fed stance drive sentiment

Threatened strike action by workers at the world’s largest copper mine has raised concerns about near-term supply constraints, creating a backdrop for increased buying interest, according to Bloomberg. Additional mine disruptions in Chile and at Antofagasta have contributed to tight physical inventories, with Finimize reporting that ongoing supply issues are intensifying fears of potential shortages. Meanwhile, recent Federal Reserve commentary signaling limited further rate hikes has eased currency headwinds somewhat, improving affordability for international copper buyers.

Mixed indicator signals as bullish price action meets momentum divergence

On the technical front, HG trades above its MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 chart and stays well above its MA-200, confirming primary bullish trends. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.7427 currently provides immediate support. The key resistance level is $6.8315, while support is defined at $6.7255. Among momentum indicators, MACD signals Strong Buy but is contrasted by a Sell signal from the RSI. ADX, Stoch RSI, CCI, and Awesome Oscillator all remain Neutral, and Bull/Bear Power indicates sellers dominate the current session, highlighting a divergence between upward price movement and mixed signal strength across oscillators.

Sideways trading likely as breakout risks hinge on support levels

Over the next 2–3 days, the expected trading range for HG is $6.7255 to $6.8315. The highest-probability scenario is for copper to remain within this current sideways corridor. If price exceeds $6.8315, a bullish breakout scenario may develop, whereas a close below $6.7255 would increase the risk of further declines. The 78% probability of an upward move suggests typical volatility could favor the upper end of this band.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees copper trading in a tight range with upside limited by mixed momentum signals and persistent supply risks. He notes that immediate technical support and resistance levels are clear, but sentiment is tempered by divergent oscillator readings. Kharitonov remains cautious as labor threats and disruptions drive uncertainty, while policy signals offer only minor relief to demand. "Until copper clears $6.8315 or decisively breaks down from $6.7255, I expect choppy directionless trading and would avoid commitment to either side."

Earlier, analysts noted that U.S. copper inventories had surged to unusually high levels due to trade-driven inflows, distorting global supply balances. The current environment, marked by potential supply disruptions at major mines and technical strength above key support levels, introduces new upside risks that leave $6.8315 as a critical resistance level to monitor for a potential breakout.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.