Muted session for Copper as $6.645 support holds price steady

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Copper slips 0.41% to $6.71 today

Highlights

Codelco has partially suspended El Teniente copper mine operations after a fatal landslide, causing confirmed global supply disruption.
Additional strike action at Antofagasta's Centinela mine is limiting near-term copper inventories and restricting available material for buyers.
Copper trades above key moving averages with strong buy signals from most momentum indicators; projected range is $6.6135 to $6.8255 with a 73% probability of an upward move.

Supply tightens as Chile mine incidents disrupt output

Codelco, Chile's state miner, has partially suspended its El Teniente copper mine operations following a landslide that resulted in two fatalities and one survivor, according to SERNAGEOMIN, Chile's mining regulator. This confirmed supply disruption has removed a significant source of output from the global copper market, directly tightening supply conditions. Additional pressure on near-term inventories arises from ongoing strike action at Antofagasta's Centinela mine, which further limits available material and sustains a cautious tone among industrial buyers. Together, these events highlight the vulnerability of global copper supply to production interruptions in Chile’s major mining regions.

Mixed momentum as buy signals clash with intraday selling

On the H4 chart, HG is trading above the MA-20 and MA-50, while on the daily chart it holds above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $6.645, marking the closest support level. Key support lies at $6.6135, while resistance is evident at $6.8255. MACD and ADX show ongoing buy interest, with RSI and CCI in Buy territory, whereas Stochastic RSI indicates short-term oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power signals strong buyer dominance intraday, although the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, resulting in a mixed technical landscape where price momentum stands in contrast to recent intraday selling.

Bullish breakout odds rise as trading narrows within range

In the short term, HG is expected to trade within a volatility band of $6.6135 to $6.8255. A move above $6.8255 would likely accelerate bullish momentum, while a sustained decline below $6.645 could trigger further downside toward support. Price consolidation within this corridor remains likely if neither resistance nor support are breached, with the probability of an upward move estimated at 73% based on current technical outlook.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the latest news from Chile as a clear signal of copper’s supply fragility. He believes the combination of the Codelco suspension and labor unrest at another major mine will boost market sensitivity to production risks. Karapetjanc sees the technical setup as supportive, with buyers showing resilience despite brief intraday pullbacks. In his view, near-term upside remains probable as long as $6.6135 support holds. "Shortfalls from top producers set the backdrop for bullish momentum, and my base case anticipates copper holding its ground above key supports," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that copper prices faced mixed technical momentum but remained supported by resilient demand and ongoing supply risks from major producers. The recent escalation of supply disruptions at key Chilean mines amplifies these risks, making $6.8255 a critical resistance level to monitor for signs of further bullish momentum.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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