HG technical analysis: Range-bound trading with weak momentum near $6,5702 support

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Copper drops 0.08% today to $6.57

Highlights

Copper demand remains supported by investment in AI infrastructure, power grid upgrades, defense procurement and ongoing supply constraints.
US copper inventories have increased as tariff-related incentives and investor interest lead to inventory build-up, easing some supply pressures.
Copper trades below short-term moving averages with technicals favoring further downside within a $6.5147 to $6.6299 range and a 75% probability of decline.

Structural demand meets rising inventories amid ongoing selling pressure

Copper's underlying demand has been recently driven by AI infrastructure rollouts, new investments in power-grid modernization, ongoing defense sector procurement, and persistent supply constraints, according to Firstpost. These structural factors have supported industrial consumption and set a fundamental price floor even as the broader market remains cautious. In addition, CNBC reported that U.S. copper stockpiles have expanded as tariff-linked incentives and robust investor demand prompted inventory accumulation, tempering some supply pressure. Despite these supportive developments, price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Short-term resistance persists as technical signals remain mixed

On the technical front, HG trades below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, while holding above the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.5702 provides immediate support. A mixed momentum profile is reflected in the MACD (Strong Sell), ADX (neutral), RSI (Sell), Stochastic RSI (Buy), and CCI (neutral). Bull/Bear Power shows strong intraday buying, whereas the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, illustrating short-term indecision.

Consolidation risk prevails as downside probability outweighs breakout

Over the next few days, copper is likely to consolidate within a volatility band between $6.5147 and $6.6299. Probability modeling suggests a 75% chance of a move lower, versus 25% for an upside breakout. Sideways action remains the preferred scenario unless resistance is decisively breached to the upside or support at the Ichimoku Kijun is broken to the downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, highlights that copper's fundamentals remain strong with robust demand drivers such as AI expansion, power-grid upgrades, and defense procurement supporting sentiment. He notes that while supply pressures are being eased by U.S. stockpiling and tariff incentives, price action reflects short-term caution. The analyst sees consolidation as likely, but underlying demand could limit any downside in the near term. "As long as fundamentals remain supportive and supply stays tight, I expect copper to find buyers on dips," Karapetjanc says.

Earlier, analysts noted that copper's longer-term bullish outlook was driven by structural demand from AI infrastructure, power-grid upgrades, and persistent supply constraints. The present stabilization around longer-term levels suggests the market is recalibrating, making the $6.5702 Ichimoku Kijun support the critical threshold traders should monitor for any decisive directional move.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.