Chile mine strike resolution keeps copper price consolidating near $6.585 resistance

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Copper gains 0.56% to $6.52 today

Highlights

Copper supply has increased following the resolution of the Centinela mine strike in Chile, pushing up available inventories.
Broader risk aversion ahead of the next Federal Reserve policy meeting is dampening copper industrial demand expectations.
Copper trades with bullish technical momentum and buyer dominance, with a forecast range of $6.4626 to $6.585 over 2 to 3 days.

Rising inventories and Fed caution drive sentiment shift lower

The recent end of the Centinela mine strike in Chile has restored copper supply to the market, increasing available inventories and shifting the near-term supply landscape, according to Riotimesonline. Higher inventory levels, in turn, are putting pressure on sentiment as investors weigh the prospect of supply outpacing immediate demand. Additionally, Bloomberg reports that broader risk aversion ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting has further weighed on copper markets by tempering industrial demand expectations.

Buyer strength endures as technicals show mild bullish bias

On the H1 chart, HG is trading above the MA-20 at $6.5019 and MA-50 at $6.4582, while also comfortably above the MA-200 at $6.3006 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart provides immediate support at $6.5002. Momentum indicators, including MACD, ADX, and Bull/Bear Power, point to persistent buyer dominance and strengthening momentum, with low intraday volatility. RSI is at 54, suggesting a mild bullish bias without overbought conditions, while CCI and the Awesome Oscillator both align with a buy-side outlook. Notably, Stochastic RSI remains neutral, indicating some divergence from the supportive momentum backdrop.

Consolidation likely as breakout depends on resistance breach

Looking into the next 2–3 trading days, the expected range for HG is between $6.4626 and $6.585, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move is estimated at 65%, compared to a 35% chance of a downside scenario, with baseline expectations favoring continued consolidation within this band. A sustained bullish breakout would require closing above $6.585, while a bearish turn would be signaled by a decisive move below immediate support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees copper holding constructive momentum above key moving averages. He believes recent supply normalization from Chile and cautious market sentiment ahead of the Fed are keeping prices in a consolidation phase. The analyst notes that technicals remain supportive, with momentum indicators favoring buyers and no signs of overbought conditions. Karapetjanc remains moderately bullish, eyeing consolidation within $6.4626–$6.585. "If positive sentiment holds and the macro backdrop stays stable, I expect copper to challenge the upper end of the range soon."

Previously it was reported that copper was consolidating as traders weighed elevated inventories and shifting policy dynamics. The current analysis adds the resolution of Chile's Centinela mine strike and approaching Federal Reserve policy risks as new factors, highlighting $6.5002 as an immediate support level to watch for directional signals in coming sessions.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.