Can US copper warehouse inflows pressure Copper price?

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Copper drops 1.09% to $6.53 today

Highlights

Large copper inflows into US warehouses have increased supply, putting downward pressure on copper futures prices.
A veteran trader has taken a substantial position on the London Metal Exchange, which may shift positioning dynamics among market participants.
Copper trades below key short- and medium-term averages, with technical indicators signaling strong downside momentum and an expected range of $6.4986 to $6.564 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Warehouse inflows and LME positioning reshape supply and sentiment outlook

Large inflows of copper into U.S. warehouses this year have increased available supply in the U.S. physical market, placing downward pressure on Copper futures pricing. In parallel, a veteran metals trader has built a significant position on the London Metal Exchange, which signals high-conviction activity among market participants and may shift positioning dynamics in related contracts. These developments have shaped trading conditions amid broader uncertainty around the regulatory and demand landscape.

Bearish momentum strengthens as resistance holds and indicators signal selling

On the hourly chart, HG is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50, while still holding well above the MA-200. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.5868. Momentum indicators remain strongly negative, with both MACD and ADX confirming a prevailing sell bias. The RSI stands at 39.66, suggesting a sell condition, while CCI indicates oversold territory. Stochastic RSI is neutral, and Bull/Bear Power exhibits clear dominance by sellers in intraday action, further supported by the Awesome Oscillator aligning with the negative trend.

Further downside risk persists amid tight consolidation and weak upside

Over the next 2–3 trading days, the price is expected to consolidate within the $6.4986 to $6.564 range, with a very high probability of further downside and a low likelihood of an upward move. The baseline scenario anticipates continued range-bound trade, while a bullish case would require a sustained break above $6.5868 to overcome immediate resistance. Conversely, a move below $6.4986 would likely trigger additional losses, with the prevailing technical and order flow context favoring the bearish outcome.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees the recent inflow of copper into U.S. warehouses as a clear sign of oversupply. He notes that technical momentum remains strongly negative, with key support and resistance levels well-defined. The expert remains defensive until price action shows a decisive change in trend. "As long as Copper stays below $6.5868, a bearish outlook is justified and I remain on the sidelines."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was trading in a rangebound manner as shifting trade flows and tariff uncertainty added a geopolitical layer to the market outlook. The latest developments—marked by increased U.S. warehouse inventories and concentrated positioning on the LME—intensify downside risk, making a decisive move below $6.4986 the key level to watch for further losses in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.