$6,655 resistance keeps Copper in flat pattern

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Copper rises 0.54% to $6.61 today

Highlights

US consideration of a 15% tariff on refined copper imports is prompting exporters to reroute shipments toward the US market.
Copper inventories outside the US are declining as supply chains adjust in advance of possible trade restrictions.
Copper is trading within a $6.4976 to $6.728 range with technical signals mixed and no clear directional trend.

Inventory tightness intensifies as tariff threat shifts trade routes

The most impactful recent event is the United States considering a 15% tariff on refined copper imports, according to CNBC, which has prompted market participants to reroute shipments to the US in anticipation of potential future trade barriers. This regulatory uncertainty has directly contributed to reduced copper inventories outside the United States, as exporters adjust their supply chains to pre-empt the possible tariffs. The resulting tightness in international supply has heightened attention on global copper logistics and reinforced short-term price sensitivity to further policy developments.

Mixed signals emerge as MACD diverges from buyer momentum

The 20-day moving average is at $6.58, with support found at $6.4976 and resistance at the MA-50 near $6.65 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $6.655. On the indicator front, MACD is showing strong selling pressure, while ADX is neutral, suggesting no dominant trend. RSI sits at 47.13 with a moderate sell bias, and Stochastic RSI is flagged as overbought. CCI remains neutral, whereas Bull/Bear Power shows intraday buyer dominance although it diverges from the MACD’s bearish signal. Price is advancing on low volatility, closing near the daily high, but the mix of momentum readings signals caution.

Rangebound price likely as resistance and support levels define outlook

Over the next few trading days, copper is likely to trade sideways within the $6.4976 to $6.728 volatility band relative to current levels, as typical market fluctuations persist. The probability of an upward move is marginally favored at 52%. A clear push above $6.655 resistance could spark further buying, while a break below $6.4976 support may accelerate selling. Most signs point to rangebound action in the near term, with technical levels defining the critical scenarios.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, notes that US tariff developments are reshaping the global copper market from a fundamental and macro perspective. He sees supply chain adjustments and inventory movements as key drivers of current sentiment, with prices holding steady above short-term averages. The analyst remains optimistic, expecting near-term volatility to be well contained within the $6.4976 to $6.728 range. Karapetjanc believes constructive positioning is justified given ongoing regulatory attention and resilient demand. "If copper stays above support levels, I expect buyers to take advantage of any positive policy signals or supply surprises," says the expert.

Earlier, analysts noted that copper's price action was dominated by structural demand drivers amid cautious consolidation and technical indecision. The current environment adds a geopolitical layer to this narrative, suggesting traders should monitor for policy-driven volatility around the $6.655 resistance as tariff developments unfold.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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