Copper price forecast: $6.5122 support as HG trades sideways

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Copper down 0.56% as record premium set

Highlights

Codelco will impose a record $350 per metric ton premium on copper supplied to European buyers in 2027, anticipating regional market shortages.
This premium signals expectations of tightening supply and growing demand for copper among European consumers in upcoming years.
Copper is trading below short- and medium-term moving averages with strong downside momentum, and the expected price range for the next sessions is $6.5122 to $6.6204.

Record premium set by Codelco amid European supply concerns

Codelco will impose a record premium of $350 per metric ton for copper supplied to European buyers in 2027, reflecting the company's view of expected shortages in the regional market, according to Bloomberg. This significant premium highlights the anticipation of tightening supply and increased demand dynamics for European copper consumers. While this action is forward-looking, it offers a window into producer sentiment and sets the backdrop for future market tightness, though current price action remains fairly muted.

Seller dominance and neutral momentum as resistance holds

On the technical front, HG is trading below both the MA-20 at $6.5851 and the MA-50 at $6.6449, marking these levels as immediate overhead resistance. The MA-200 at $6.2927 continues to provide a buffer on the downside, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $6.585 acting as an additional resistance level. Momentum indicators reinforce a cautious outlook: MACD shows a strong sell signal, and Bull/Bear Power indicates seller dominance intraday. However, RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI readings all point to oversold conditions, suggesting that while sellers are in control, downside exhaustion may be near. The ADX remains neutral, signaling a lack of strong trending momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator supports the prevailing downside bias.

Downside risk persists as breakout potential remains subdued

For the upcoming sessions, copper is likely to consolidate within the $6.5122 to $6.6204 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a sustained upward breakout remains very low given prevailing technical signals, while further downside risk is elevated if support at $6.5122 fails. Baseline expectation is continued range-bound trade, with any bullish scenario hinging on a decisive move above resistance at $6.585. Should that not materialize, risk skews toward a breakdown below current support.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees little near-term upside for copper despite Codelco's record 2027 premium signaling future tightness. Price action remains weak, with sellers in control and no technical support for a sustained rebound. The analyst remains cautious, emphasizing that risk is skewed to the downside unless copper clears the $6.585 resistance. "Unless we see a decisive move above immediate resistance, any bounce looks short-lived and downside pressure could resume quickly."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper faced continued bearish pressure as warehouse inflows increased supply and technical signals remained negative. The current article reinforces this cautious outlook, as technical barriers persist and any shift toward a bullish scenario will require a decisive move above immediate resistance in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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