Gold price forecast: US authorizes blocked cargo offloading as XAU drops 1.95%

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Gold slips 1.95% to $4,054 today

Highlights

US regulators authorized cargo offloading from previously blocked vessels, reducing disruptions and contributing to a weaker risk premium for gold.
Gold demand from safe haven flows lessened, though lower US Treasury yields before the Federal Reserve decision provided some support.
Gold trades under key moving averages with dominant bearish momentum; projected range is $4,013 to $4,094 and further downside is probable absent a move above resistance.

Safe haven demand eases as regulatory shift alleviates supply fears

The recent decision by the US to authorize offloading cargo from previously blocked vessels, as reported by FXStreet, relieved concerns over ongoing disruptions to global commodity flows and contributed to a weaker risk premium for gold. This regulatory action lessened safe haven demand, aligning with the downward move. Meanwhile, according to Marketscreener, softer US Treasury yields in the leadup to the Federal Reserve decision provided some offsetting support for investor sentiment, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish signals persist as momentum indicators confirm seller control

On the H4 timeframe, XAU traded below the MA-20 at $4,118 and MA-50 at $4,139, while the daily chart placed it well under the MA-200 at $4,411. The Ichimoku Kijun served as immediate resistance at $4,111. Momentum indicators were weak: RSI registered 35.04 (Sell), with MACD and ADX both on Sell signals. Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power showed oversold conditions intraday, confirming persistent seller strength. The Awesome Oscillator also aligned with continued downside pressure. There were no signs of reversal from oscillators or price action on these readings.

Downside risk elevated as range-bound trading likely persists

In the near term, XAU is expected to consolidate within the $4,013 to $4,094 range. The probability for further downside remains high, while a decisive bullish reversal scenario is less likely under current conditions. Sideways price action may dominate until a breakout above resistance, or a sustained close below support triggers renewed declines. This volatility band is typical relative to recent market dynamics.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, highlights that US regulatory action to allow cargo offloading removed a key macro risk for gold. He sees continued selling pressure as risk appetite recovers and safe haven demand pulls back. Weaker Treasury yields are not enough to shift sentiment decisively. Momentum and technicals remain negative as price consolidates near recent lows. "Unless gold decisively regains its key moving averages, further downside remains more likely than a sharp bullish reversal in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent weakness in gold was driven by rising US yields and inflation concerns, with technical studies reflecting dominant selling momentum. The current article reinforces this bearish outlook by highlighting continued downside pressure and oversold signals, making renewed declines the prevailing scenario to monitor if support levels are breached.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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