Brent crude oil price prediction: Upward momentum to persist if resistance holds

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Brent crude oil jumps 1.67% today

Highlights

Brent crude faces upward pressure as attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure and threats of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran intensify supply concerns.
The International Energy Agency is preparing to release strategic reserves in response to escalating geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions.
Brent trades in a bullish trend with buyers dominating and price seen consolidating within a $112.88 to $117.16 range, though overbought signals indicate stretched conditions.

Escalating geopolitical risks drive supply fears and intervention talks

Brent crude oil has come under renewed upward pressure following attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure, which have escalated supply concerns from one of the world's key oil producers, as reported by FXStreet. Heightened geopolitical risks are front and center, with reports from Investopedia indicating that U.S. and Israeli plans for renewed strikes against Iran, alongside ongoing attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia, have further stoked market anxiety over potential supply disruptions. In response to these risks, Kantan reports that the International Energy Agency is preparing for a possible release of strategic reserves, signaling how seriously authorities are treating the current environment. Markets also remain alert to inflationary effects and broader macro disruptions linked to the oil price shock, as noted by Thehindubusinessline.

Mixed technical signals as overbought conditions clash with trend strength

On the H1 timeframe, XBR/USD is above the MA-20 at $113.6 and the MA-50 at $111.62, with the long-term MA-200 at $94.47 well below. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $111.33 and acts as immediate support. MACD signals a Buy at current levels, while the ADX remains Neutral; RSI reads 62.61 (Buy territory), though both CCI and Bull/Bear Power indicate overbought conditions. Stoch RSI is firmly in Strong Sell territory, and the Awesome Oscillator maintains a Neutral reading, highlighting a divergence between trend-following and oscillating indicators.

Consolidation likely as breakout risks dictate near-term direction

In the near term, price is expected to consolidate within a $112.88 to $117.16 range, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The baseline scenario sees consolidation continuing, with a 76% probability of upward movement. A breakout above $117.16 could spark further bullish momentum, while a move below $112.88 would bring deeper support into play and raise the risk of a corrective pullback.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Brent crude oil underpinned by escalating supply concerns and strong macro drivers. He believes the fundamental backdrop is bullish, with geopolitical tensions providing a firm catalyst and inflation risk driving positive sentiment across markets. Technicals point to a consolidation phase but remain tilted to the upside. In his view, risks are clearly skewed toward further gains if $117.16 is breached. "As long as supply shocks and geopolitical risks persist, I expect Brent to remain well supported within its current range and favor a continued move higher."

Earlier, analysts noted that escalating geopolitical tensions and repeated attacks on key oil infrastructure in the Middle East were driving persistent strength in Brent crude oil prices. The current technical setup reinforces this outlook, with continued supply risks and a potential breakout above $117.16 serving as a trigger point for further bullish momentum.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.