Muted action for Gold as trading remains well below long-term average

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Gold drops 0.31% to $3,996 today

Highlights

Spot gold steadied early in the week as softer oil prices alleviated some input cost pressures on the bullion market.
The metal stabilized after its largest weekly decline since June, with traders attentive to elevated energy costs and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision.
Gold trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum signals, expected in a $3,915 to $4,076 range over the next 2 to 3 days.

Cautious sentiment emerges as traders weigh mixed macro drivers

Spot gold rebounded early Monday as softer oil prices eased input cost pressures on the bullion market, providing relief to recent selling, according to TradingView. The metal steadied following its largest weekly drop since June, with traders balancing the impact of elevated energy prices and closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision, as reported by Bloomberg. Overall, the evolving macro backdrop contributed to mixed positioning and prompted cautious sentiment among market participants.

Momentum divergence grows as XAU tests resistance and selling bias persists

XAU is trading below the MA-20 at $4,014 and the MA-50 at $4,074 on the H4 chart, as well as under the daily MA-200 at $4,399. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $4,038, while support sits at $3,915. MACD and ADX both signal strong selling momentum, and the RSI reading of 41.09 suggests a continued selling bias. Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power indicate overbought conditions and buyer dominance, but CCI and Awesome Oscillator remain neutral, highlighting ongoing momentum divergence.

Sideways range seen as breakout risk favors downside

In the near term, gold is likely to remain in a sideways corridor, with an expected price range of $3,915 to $4,076 over the next two to three trading days. The probability of an upward breakout is estimated at 35%, making a downward move more likely. A break above immediate resistance at $4,038 would be required for a bullish turn, while a sustained move below $3,915 would confirm renewed bearish momentum within the current volatility band.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees gold under persistent technical pressure with sub-$4,000 levels reflecting cautious sentiment. He points to strong selling momentum on MACD and ADX, with resistance intact at $4,038 and a bias for downside as long as price remains below the moving averages. Short-term moves are likely confined to a sideways band, with little conviction for a bullish reversal. "Unless gold reclaims $4,038, my base case remains defensive — rallies are suspect until selling momentum fades."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold faced ongoing downside risk as technical signals and heightened sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy contributed to a cautious outlook. The current analysis substantiates this bearish bias, with sellers maintaining control and traders advised to monitor the $3,915 support level as a possible trigger for renewed downside momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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