$113.56 support helps Brent crude oil consolidate despite lackluster daily change

Traders Union
All News
Commodities
Brent crude oil slips 0.06% today

Highlights

Heightened geopolitical risk follows a Houthi-claimed attack on a Saudi refinery, raising concerns about Middle East oil supply disruption.
Traders are monitoring the situation to assess potential regional stockbuilding or material changes to overall supply dynamics.
Brent crude trades below key short- and medium-term averages with strong sell signals, targeting a price range of $110.64 to $117.6 and a 70% probability of further downside.

Supply concerns heightened as Houthi refinery attack stokes sentiment shift

Geopolitical tensions continue to shape the backdrop for Brent crude oil, with supply risk elevated after Yemen's Houthi group claimed responsibility for an attack on a Saudi refinery, according to Newsbytesapp. This incident has introduced concerns about potential disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows, prompting traders to monitor the situation closely. Market participants are weighing whether damage from the attack will significantly influence broader supply dynamics or lead to precautionary stockbuilding within the region.

Support at $113.56 tested as negative momentum dominates technicals

On the technical side, XBR/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $114.8 and the MA-50 at $115.01 on the H4 chart, while remaining above the MA-200 at $95.27. The Ichimoku Kijun lines up as immediate support at $113.56. Momentum indicators reinforce near-term weakness: MACD and ADX are both in sell territory, with RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI all signaling oversold or sell zone conditions. Bull/Bear Power highlights seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) supports a strong negative bias with no material divergence among key signals.

Consolidation likely as upside break probability remains subdued

Looking ahead, Brent crude is expected to trade between $110.64 and $117.6 over the next several sessions, reflecting typical volatility for the current technical setup. The probability of a break above $117.6 is limited, estimated at just 30%, while a retreat to the lower end of the range holds a 70% likelihood. The baseline scenario anticipates continued consolidation within this zone. A clear move below immediate support levels could open the way for further losses towards $110.64, whereas any sustained upside momentum would require a decisive breakout above resistance at $117.6.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that Brent crude oil is navigating a cautious environment shaped by persistent geopolitical risk and guarded technical sentiment. He sees traders remaining attentive to Middle Eastern news as supply disruptions could quickly shift outlook, yet technical indicators continue to favor sellers for now. The analyst believes the market is consolidating, with limited immediate upside potential and a higher chance of further tests of support levels. "If Brent holds above key support, sentiment could shift rapidly — I'm watching for any signs of renewed buying interest from these levels," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that renewed diplomatic efforts in the Middle East had temporarily eased oil supply concerns and put downward pressure on crude prices despite ongoing regional threats. The latest escalation with the attack on a Saudi refinery adds a new supply risk dimension, making the $110.64 level a critical support to monitor for potential downside in Brent crude oil trading.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.