Copper price forecast: $6.59 resistance in focus as HG holds steady

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Copper gains 0.31% to $6.5515 today

Highlights

Copper markets are constrained by tight supply conditions, sustaining current prices and limiting availability for buyers.
Lower oil prices are reducing production costs for copper producers and affecting supply considerations.
Copper trades within a projected range of $6.4308 to $6.6722, with mixed technical signals and 60% probability of upside.

Tight supply and tariff risks strengthen futures positioning

Copper markets are being shaped by tight supply conditions that continue to limit availability, supporting current pricing structures. According to Brecorder, falling oil prices are moderating production costs, which can bolster producer economics and affect supply dynamics. In addition, ongoing concerns over potential tariffs and supply disruptions for US-bound refined copper are prompting precautionary positioning in futures contracts.

Negative momentum as copper hovers between major moving averages

Technically, HG remains below its MA-20 at $6.5667 but sits above the MA-50 ($6.5437) on the working timeframe and the MA-200 ($6.3222) on the daily chart. The $6.59 Ichimoku Kijun level acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are mostly negative: MACD and ADX both show sell conditions, and RSI registers at 47.68 (Sell). Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral, indicating a lack of clear overbought or oversold extremes. Bull/Bear Power reflects strong intraday buyer activity, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. Current price action is characterized by a small upward move following a negative gap, low volatility, and mixed momentum signals.

Rangebound trade likely as bullish breakout and support tests loom

Over the next few sessions, copper is expected to trade within a volatility band of $6.4308–$6.6722. With a 60% probability of upward movement, the baseline scenario sees prices consolidating within this corridor, with tests of both extremes possible. A bullish breakout above $6.59 resistance could pave the way toward the upper boundary near $6.67, while a drop below $6.54 would expose the lower support around $6.43.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that copper is caught in a narrow range, with tight supply and tariff risks lending support but bearish technicals and mixed momentum tempering any upside. He sees the price action as mainly consolidative for now, as key levels remain unbroken. The analyst remains cautious, emphasizing the lack of conviction in indicators and the market’s flat tone. "Base case stays neutral as long as $6.59 is not cleared — without a breakout, I prefer to remain on the sidelines."

Previously it was reported that Metals.io launched a tokenized copper product in Hamburg, enabling investors to access physical copper via blockchain-based tokens. Now, with copper trading in a tight range amidst ongoing supply concerns and shifting production economics, traders should closely watch for a decisive move above the $6.59 resistance or below $6.54 support to signal the next directional breakout.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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