Copper price outlook: Range-bound near $6.26 as sellers maintain control

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Copper gains 0.83% today to $6.27

Highlights

Copper futures trade under pressure as US election uncertainty clouds outlook for both AI infrastructure demand and international trade policies.
Potential US import tariffs threaten global copper trade flows, restraining the case for a sustained bull market.
Bearish technical signals dominate with copper trading below key moving averages and a projected short-term range of $6.1806 to $6.3564.

Demand uncertainty and tariff risk weigh on copper sentiment

Copper futures have faced renewed pressure as the US election introduces uncertainty around two primary demand drivers, according to Bloomberg. The uncertainty dampens expectations for rapid AI infrastructure buildout, while the risk of new US import tariffs creates potential headwinds for international copper trade. These developments have weighed on sentiment, curbing the bullish case for copper despite episodic rebounds.

Bearish trend persists as momentum indicators confirm seller control

HG faces immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $6.32, with support at $6.1806. The asset remains below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, reflecting persistent weakness across short- and long-term trend signals. Momentum readings are bearish as MACD is on strong sell and ADX shows downtrend strength, while both RSI and Stoch RSI oscillators remain neutral, indicating the absence of overbought or oversold signals. Bull/Bear Power is negative, supporting seller dominance on intraday moves, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral.

Downside scenario favored as rangebound trading persists

Short-term forecasts anticipate copper trading between $6.1806 and $6.3564, a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move remains limited at 22%, with a 78% probability of continued downside, making further declines more likely. The baseline expectation is for continued rangebound action near current levels, with a bullish break requiring a clear move above $6.32 or a bearish extension confirmed by a close below $6.1806.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that copper is struggling to regain upward momentum due to macro risks from the US election, especially with uncertainty over AI investment and potential tariffs. He sees the bearish technical structure as consistent with cautious sentiment. Karapetjanc remains constructive, believing bullish potential could re-emerge if price breaks above key resistance. As he puts it: "If copper closes above $6.32 and election uncertainties dissipate, I expect buyers to regain control."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was exhibiting persistent bearish momentum as prices remained anchored below key moving averages. The latest analysis strengthens this view, with continued technical weakness and fresh election-related uncertainties indicating that traders should closely monitor the $6.1806 support level for potential downside risk.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.