Brent crude slides as US and Iran resume negotiations

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Brent crude slides 1.48% to $103.69

Highlights

The US and Iran plan to resume negotiations aimed at reducing geopolitical tensions, influencing crude oil supply risk perceptions.
Renewed talks led to a reassessment of geopolitical risk premiums affecting Brent crude pricing among market participants.
Brent crude trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages, with bearish momentum suggesting high probability of a move to the $97.84 to $109.54 range over the next few days.

Risk premiums moderate as US-Iran talks ease supply concerns

On November 2, the US and Iran announced plans to resume negotiations directed at easing geopolitical tensions, according to TradingKey. Such diplomatic engagement has historically influenced crude oil markets by reducing perceived supply risks, which can temper demand for risk premiums among market participants. The anticipation of renewed talks contributed to a reassessment of geopolitical risk factors affecting Brent crude.

Bearish momentum holds as resistance and long-term support converge

On the four-hour chart, XBR remains below both the MA-20 and MA-50, while holding above the MA-200, which provides long-term support. The Ichimoku Kijun at $108.81 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum readings are negative, with MACD showing a strong sell signal and ADX also indicating selling pressure. Oscillator indicators — RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI — are neutral and do not confirm a directional bias, while Bull/Bear Power is mildly positive at 0.48. The Awesome Oscillator is currently balanced, suggesting a lack of strong intraday momentum.

Range-bound trading expected as downside risks outweigh breakout odds

Over the next two to three sessions, Brent crude is likely to consolidate within a volatile range between $97.84 and $109.54. The probability of an upward breakout is considered very low, while a downward move is significantly more likely if support at $97.84 is breached. Any sustained advance would require a break above resistance at $108.81. The base case points to continued sideways trading inside the highlighted volatility band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the return of US–Iran negotiations as a constructive step for oil market sentiment. He believes easing geopolitical risk may further temper supply premiums and support stabilization around long-term averages. Technicals point to a neutral-to-negative bias with consolidation as the most probable scenario. "If Brent holds long-term support, renewed diplomacy could help underpin prices in the current range, but I still expect volatility until resistance at $108.81 is clearly broken."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran were helping to reduce immediate concerns over supply disruptions in the oil market. With Brent crude price action now consolidating below key resistance levels and technical indicators reflecting negative momentum, traders should watch for a potential downside break below $97.84 as the next major risk in the current environment.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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