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CME Group reports that Asset Managers are net short JPY/USD futures for the first time since November 2024.
The last two weekly gains in shorts were the two largest in the past 26 months. Data is based on a chart via @quikstrike1.
CME is trading sharply below all major SMA levels, with the current price of $252.09 well under the MA-20 ($285.22), MA-50 ($290.76), and MA-200 ($282.42), signaling strong downside momentum in short-, medium-, and long-term trends. The Ichimoku Kijun at $276.49 stands above the current price and acts as immediate resistance, while near-term support is found at the MA-200 ($282.42) and key support at MA-100 ($294.89); immediate resistance sits at the Ichimoku Kijun ($276.49), with key resistance at the MA-50 ($290.76).
Momentum signals across D1 point to sustained selling pressure: MACD indicates a strong bearish trend, while ADX at 25.55 suggests a decisive, though not extreme, directional move. Oversold signals are pronounced, with RSI at 22.69, CCI at –252.13, and Stoch RSI at oversold levels, highlighting deeply stretched downside conditions. BBP confirms that sellers dominate intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator trend also supports continued weakness. CME is trading at $252.09, down sharply from $273.54 a week ago, reflecting a 7.93% weekly decline. The price is now in the lower part of the weekly range, with volatility at 14.65%—this underscores a steady decline from the previous highs.
Looking ahead, the expected price range for the coming week is $251.94 to $253.93, which keeps CME just above its newly set 52-week low ($244.56) and well below its 52-week high ($329.16). Based on W1 signals—where all trend and momentum indicators (MA-50-W1, RSI-W1, MACD-W1, and ADX-W1) point to continued selling—the probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%). Downside continuation remains significantly more likely. In the baseline scenario, CME stabilizes within a narrow sideways corridor near current lows. A bullish scenario would require a decisive rebound above $253.93 and the Ichimoku resistance, potentially triggering a squeeze toward higher moving averages. In the bearish scenario, a break below $251.94 would likely open the path toward a retest of the 52-week low, given prevailing seller dominance.
Earlier, analysts noted that CME Group was experiencing persistent selling pressure and a generally bearish technical outlook despite the launch of new crypto derivatives products. This article adds a new dimension by assessing whether recent market developments could shift sentiment, with traders advised to keep a close watch on any signals of sustained momentum or potential reversal.