Elon Musk targets $100 trillion SpaceX valuation despite rising AI infrastructure costs

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Musk targets $100 trillion SpaceX valuation

Highlights

Musk predicts SpaceX could exceed $100 trillion within 10 years.
Baron expects Starlink to reach a $15 trillion valuation.
AI infrastructure spending increases borrowing and market risks.

The forecast followed comments by Baron Capital CEO Ron Baron, who estimated that SpaceX could eventually be worth $20 trillion to $50 trillion. Musk indicated that those projections were too conservative and suggested the company could exceed $100 trillion within 10 years.

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Starlink and orbital data centers drive growth expectations

Baron sees Starlink as a central component of SpaceX's future valuation, estimating that the satellite internet business alone could eventually be worth $14 trillion to $15 trillion.

His projections assume more than 300 million subscribers worldwide, approximately $1 trillion in annual revenue and yearly net profits of $700 billion to $800 billion.

Baron also identifies orbital data centers as a potential growth business. Such facilities could use solar power while avoiding some terrestrial constraints involving land, electricity, and cooling. Reusable Starship launches would be essential to the economics, with projected transportation costs falling from $1,500 to $150 per kilogram.

AI expansion increases borrowing requirements

SpaceX's integration of xAI in February has substantially increased its infrastructure spending. The company is reportedly seeking $40 billion in financing, comprising $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade bonds.

The proposed package follows an approximately $86 billion stock market debut in June and a subsequent $25 billion bond sale.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has estimated that SpaceX could require roughly $80 billion in annual borrowing through 2035. Much of the investment is directed toward AI computing infrastructure, including advanced Nvidia processors.

The financing strategy exposes SpaceX to interest rates and the commercial performance of AI services. Investor Ray Dalio has warned that heavily indebted investment cycles can become vulnerable when borrowing costs rise and investors begin selling assets.

Stock performance highlights the valuation gap

During the latest trading session, SpaceX shares fell 2.80% to $152.16. Premarket trading indicated a further decline to $147.59, down 3.00%.

Analyst expectations remain divided, with a reported average 12-month price target of $216.21 and estimates ranging from $75 to $450.

Investors are also monitoring a potential release of approximately 1.31 billion insider shares following third-quarter results, which could increase selling pressure.Elon Musk's $100 trillion projection ultimately depends on SpaceX translating ambitious growth plans into earnings large enough to support its valuation and financing costs. For now, it remains a speculative long-term scenario rather than a demonstrated financial trajectory.

We have previously highlighted SpaceX's acquisition of spectrum for Starlink Mobile expansion in the U.S.

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