Monero price prediction: further selloff or rebound? XMR down 7.59%

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Monero slides 7.59% today to $365.76

Highlights

XMR trades at $365.76, below the MA-20 ($392.66) and MA-50 ($367.65) but above the MA-200 ($321.80), reflecting persistent short- and medium-term selling pressure with sustained long-term support.
The daily decline of $30.03 or 7.59% occurred without a price gap and pushed XMR near session lows, amid volatile, seller-dominated intraday momentum with oversold technical readings.
Weekly indicators imply over 80% probability of price increase, projecting consolidation between $345.00 and $390.00 unless XMR breaks below $360.00, which could signal a slide toward $345.00.

Oscillator divergence intensifies as sellers drive intraday volatility

The nearest dynamic support is the Ichimoku Kijun level at $378.40, while the MA-50 at $367.65 acts as the closest key resistance in the current range. Momentum readings are mixed: while the daily MACD indicates strong upside bias and the ADX signals a generally healthy trend, most intraday timeframes flash "Sell" or "Oversold" warnings. Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all classify current conditions as oversold, confirming that sellers dominate the recent intraday momentum. The RSI sits just above neutral at 51.74. The daily loss of $30.03 or 7.59% started without a visible gap between yesterday’s close and today’s open, and price action is now near the session low, reflecting high intraday volatility and heavy pressure after the open. Momentum and oscillator readings are in notable conflict, highlighting a divergence between underlying trend and current intraday sentiment.

Bullish scenario probable as indicators favor sideways stabilization

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the next five days is approximately $345.00 to $390.00, adjusted for current volatility. The probability of an increase is very high (more than 80%), while the likelihood of a further decline is very low (less than 20%), based on bullish readings from all key weekly indicators. The baseline scenario sees XMR stabilizing between support and resistance in a sideways corridor. A bullish scenario would require a sustained move above $378.40 and the MA-50, opening room toward the $390.00 — $400.00 band. In a bearish scenario, a decisive drop below $360.00 could trigger a test of long-term support near $350.00 — $345.00.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Monero in a technical conflict. The medium-term trend is under pressure, but weekly indicators show strong underlying support. Sellers dominate intraday momentum, with volatility elevated and key resistance overhead. "Base case is a sideways range, and I stay defensive unless XMR reclaims $378.40 with conviction."

Previously it was reported that Monero remained in bullish alignment above all key moving averages, with momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX confirming continued upward pressure despite some mixed signals from CCI and Stochastic RSI. Upside volatility was pronounced, with buyers dominating intraday momentum and the next resistance seen near the $400 level, as detailed in the large upside move of 14.83%.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.