Bitcoin price prediction: BTC liquidity-driven bounce stalls amid weak spot demand

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Bitcoin liquidity-driven bounce lacks conviction

Highlights

Bitcoin failed breakout at $94K reflects speculative bounce lacking strong spot demand conviction
BTC coils inside triangle structure as leverage builds while volume support shrinks
Post-Fed rally fades, price struggles to sustain upside momentum above $92,600

The initial reaction was an attempted to break higher following the Fed’s announcement, but bullish momentum was quickly rejected at the horizontal resistance zone of an ascending triangle pattern near $94,000. The failed breakout led to a sharp intraday reversal that extended into Thursday, dragging price down to the rising trendline support of the triangle structure at $89,300.

Bitcoin price dynamics (Nov - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

The bounce from that trendline was both technical and macro-driven. Bitcoin rebounded sharply during Thursday's North American session as investors rotated funds into risk assets, following the Fed’s dovish signal. Perpetual futures funding rates turned positive, indicating more long positions, while open interest rose alongside price, showing an increase in speculative leverage. The recovery took Bitcoin up by 4.8% to a high of $93,500, although the move lost steam and retreated to $91,500 in Friday’s early Asian session.

Speculators BTC lead recovery after Fed cut, but lacks conviction in spot market

As of Friday’s European session, Bitcoin trades near $92,600 after recovering from the intraday low. However, the current rebound lacks volume support. The long-to-short ratio has not moved in favour of bulls either. This divergence suggests that Thursday’s move was not driven by long-term accumulation but rather by leveraged short-term speculation.

If speculative positioning continues to drive price action, Bitcoin may retest the $94,000 resistance once more. However, the absence of strong spot demand means any failed attempt could unwind rapidly. A pullback may force price to revisit the ascending trendline support. Below that, the $91,000 to $91,500 zone, where the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs on the 4-hour chart converge, could provide interim support.

The price structure continues to coil inside the triangle pattern. Until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs, Bitcoin's direction hinges on liquidity flows and how much leverage speculators are willing to deploy.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin dropped 2.8% to $89,500 as the post-Fed bounce lost traction. Over $56 million in long positions were liquidated after BTC’s failed breakout on the rate cut.

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