Solana price prediction: SOL breaks trendline as December set for third straight monthly loss

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Solana to record third monthly loss

Highlights

Solana breaks rising trendline as failed rally confirms continuation of broader bearish structure
Long positioning rises slightly, but open interest and short bias show weak conviction
Third straight monthly loss likely for Solana as December deepens in red

This breakdown of the short-term bullish trendline signals a return to broader bearish market structure. The failed rally confirms that the recent upside move was likely a retracement within a longer-term downtrend. Over the past four weeks, Solana has consistently closed lower, cementing the bearish narrative that has dominated since late November.

Solana price chart (Dec 2025). Source: TradingView

As of Tuesday’s European session, Solana trades near $125, reflecting a mild 1.5% gain from Monday’s close. This limited bounce is consistent with a minor intraday retracement and likely reflects a retest of the broken trendline as resistance. Until the price reclaims higher ground and holds above structural resistance zones, Solana’s price action is still shaped by broader bearish pressure.

ETP inflows suggest institutional interest, despite broader retail selling pressure

Derivatives data provides further insight. Amid today’s price recovery, Solana’s open interest has stayed flat, suggesting no aggressive positioning from either bulls or bears. Meanwhile, the funding rate has increased from 0.002 to 0.006, which indicates that long positions are becoming slightly more expensive. However, the long-to-short ratio has trended slightly bearish, showing traders are not fully convinced of a bullish reversal. This mix points to hesitation. The higher funding rate hints at some speculative longs returning, but the lack of decisive open interest movement and a bearish tilt in positioning shows that conviction is limited.

Solana is currently down 6.7% month-to-date. A red close for December would mark the third straight monthly loss. The last time Solana posted three consecutive red monthly candles was in 2022. On a year-to-date basis, the asset is still down roughly 35%, highlighting persistent underperformance across longer time frames.

Technically, daily RSI has held in bearish territory since mid-October, echoing the sustained weakness in market momentum. Broader sentiment across the crypto market has remained in fear during this same period, reinforcing the pressure on altcoins like Solana. Still, institutional interest has not vanished entirely. Solana ETPs registered $7.5 million in inflows last week, bringing total inflows to roughly $750 million since mid-October. Outflows have occurred on just three days.

Some analysts now suggest the altcoin market may be nearing a valuation floor, especially for fundamentally strong assets. However, for Solana, the near-term path depends on whether the current recovery attempt can regain control of the broken structure or fades once again into renewed selling.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Solana climbed 4% to $123.5 as open interest rose from $2.7 to $2.93 billion. RSI rebound and positive funding strengthened the bullish case toward the $127–$129 resistance zone.

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