Solana price prediction: SOL stalls below 50-day EMA after 9% early-year rally

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Highlights

Solana gains 9% in 2026 as bulls face 50-day EMA resistance
Whale deposit to Gate raises concern about possible sell pressure into strength
SOL RSI flips bullish while the fear and greed index turns Neutral for the first time since October

That Asian session rally marked a break above the prior three-week high, before price retraced slightly to $135.5 by the start of the European session. Even at current levels, Solana is still trading over 1% higher on the day.

The move continues the sharp crypto market rebound seen since the start of the year. Solana’s multi-day rally has been supported by trend-following behavior on the intraday charts. Both the 20- and 50-exponential moving averages on the 1-hour chart have been rising steadily, pushing the price higher and preventing breakdowns during intra-session pullbacks. Most recently, the 20 EMA offered support when the price retreated from the Asian session peak of $137.7, preventing a slide below $134.4.

Solana price chart (Nov 2025 - Jan 2026). Source: TradingView

However, the bullish momentum is now facing some obstacles. The 50-day EMA has stalled today’s breakout attempt and is currently acting as near-term resistance. This same level rejected the rally earlier in the day, limiting further upside for now. That makes this technical barrier a key level to watch in the sessions ahead, especially since any breakout could attract more buyers.

$53 million SOL transfer to Gate exchange raises short-term sell pressure concerns

At the same time, on-chain activity is stirring concerns. Whale Alert tracked a major Solana transfer involving 407,001 SOL worth over $53 million being sent from an unknown wallet to the Gate exchange. The large deposit has raised speculation about whether a key whale is preparing to sell into the rally. The size and timing of the transaction have introduced an element of caution, especially as traders weigh the impact of large-scale selling.

Still, some indicators are leaning bullish. The global crypto fear and greed index has shifted to Neutral for the first time since October, indicating a possible recovery in market sentiment. Solana’s daily RSI has also moved into bullish territory around 60 after being stuck in bearish levels throughout Q4 of 2025. This technical shift could increase conviction for traders looking to buy the dip if price pulls back again.

For now, Solana bulls are trying to build a base above $134. The focus is on whether the price can break above the 50-day EMA and sustain above $138. A successful close above that resistance may open up the next leg higher in this early-year rally.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Solana traded between $122.7 and $129, forming a tight triangle pattern after a 34% yearly drop. Long traders dominated positioning, but the broader bearish trend and lack of U.S. policy clarity kept price stalled below major EMAs.

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