Solana price prediction: SOL rejects $140 after five-day 11% rally
Solana’s price action is showing signs of exhaustion on Tuesday after extending its early 2026 rally during the Asian session. Price climbed 1.65% from Monday’s close at $137.8 to briefly touch the $140 psychological level, sweeping above Monday’s high of $139.8. However, a rejection has since developed near $140, dragging price back to $138 as bearish momentum builds in the early European session.
Highlights
- Solana rejects $140 after five-day rally enters key Fibonacci resistance zone of December downswing
- Break above 50-day EMA fades as RSI strength fails to extend momentum beyond resistance
- Open interest rises to $3.5B while flat long-short ratio signals hesitation among leveraged traders
Tuesday’s hesitation comes after five consecutive days of gains that pushed Solana’s 2026 performance to over 11%. Monday’s session alone saw a 3% surge alongside the highest daily volume in more than a week, which also helped break above the 50-day EMA for the first time since October. That technical breakout was reinforced by a strong daily RSI reading of 63 and a bullish EMA alignment on the 4-hour chart, where the 20 and 50 EMAs have both crossed above the 100 EMA.
Solana price chart (Sept 2025 - Jan 2026). Source: TradingView
Despite the strong start, Solana is still trading inside a broader downtrend that began in September 2025. The recent rally is best seen as a bullish retracement within a larger bearish swing from $147 to $117 in December. Currently, Solana price is positioned between the Fibonacci 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels of that bearish leg, a zone often associated with potential trend continuation to the downside.
SOL on-chain inflow rises as positioning stays cautious despite early 2026 rally
On-chain metrics show a mixed picture. SOL open interest has steadily increased from $3.0 billion to $3.5 billion during the January 1 to 5 rally, indicating fresh capital inflows. However, the long-to-short ratio has stayed flat near 3.0, reflecting a lack of aggressive repositioning from traders despite the rally.
Looking ahead, the 4-hour 20 EMA around $135 aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and offers potential near-term support. If the pullback deepens, this zone may help cushion price and determine whether Solana can stabilise for another attempt at $140 or slide back into the broader downtrend structure.
In recent analysis, we discussed how Solana gained 9% in early 2026 but stalled below the 50-day EMA resistance. A whale deposit to Gate raised concerns about potential sell pressure, while RSI turned bullish, and the fear and greed index shifted to neutral for the first time since October.
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