TON weekly report: range-bound between $1.76 and $1.86 as sell pressure limits recovery odds

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Toncoin falls 4.85% this week

Highlights

Telegram's first half of 2025 revenue surged 65% year-over-year to $870 million, fueled significantly by $300 million in Toncoin-linked exclusivity deals.
Telegram sold more than $450 million worth of TON to meet liquidity needs, contributing to a net loss of $222 million as a $500 million bond freeze also weighed on results.
Toncoin's deeper integration within the Telegram ecosystem and its large role in strategic partnership revenue highlight increasing financial interdependence between the asset and platform.

Telegram revenue surge and Toncoin sales deepen platform interdependence

Telegram reported a 65% year-over-year revenue jump to $870 million in the first half of 2025, with roughly $300 million stemming from exclusivity deals tied to Toncoin. The company sold more than $450 million worth of TON to address liquidity needs, which contributed to a net loss of $222 million as a $500 million bond freeze also impacted results. Toncoin's growing integration within the Telegram ecosystem and its role in strategic partnership revenue highlight the asset's increased financial interdependence with the messaging platform.

Bearish momentum confirmed as weekly technicals favor downside risk

On the weekly timeframe, TON remains firmly below both the MA-20 ($2.201) and MA-50 ($2.846), confirming continued downside pressure over both short and medium-term horizons. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $2.149 as the closest dynamic resistance, with weekly technicals not indicating any notable reversal signals. MACD on W1 maintains a strong bearish bias and the ADX confirms robust downside momentum. RSI and CCI remain weak, while Stoch RSI signals overbought exhaustion, hinting at limited recovery. Bollinger Band Percent shows occasional buying attempts, but overall performance and technicals favor sellers.

Limited upside expected as volatility supports narrow range next week

In the coming 5–7 trading days, TON is expected to trade within a narrow range between $1.76 and $1.86, staying close to the current market level due to ongoing volatility. The likelihood of a sustained price increase remains low (less than 20%), and continued weakness could push the asset below $1.76 if sell pressure intensifies. Most indicators support a scenario of sideways consolidation with sellers in control, unless a break above $1.86 materializes and shifts momentum toward resistance at the Kijun level.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that Toncoin closed the week under sustained selling pressure, firmly below its key moving averages and showing little sign of changing trend. He sees persistent bearish momentum in both technicals and structure, with prices stuck in a narrow range between $1.76 and $1.86 and no clear pathway for a sustained rally. Despite growing financial integration with Telegram, the loss of key technical levels keeps sellers in control unless a breakout above $1.86 occurs. "Until Toncoin convincingly reclaims resistance near the Ichimoku Kijun at $2.149, I remain neutral and expect sideways action with downside risks this week."

Previously it was noted that Toncoin is exhibiting short- and medium-term bullish momentum, trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages and supported by positive MACD and ADX readings. Technical analysis suggested a potential mild pullback or consolidation between $1.90 and $1.97, as momentum fades, with the risk of correction rising if key support is breached.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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