Bitcoin price prediction: BTC holds below 100 EMA ahead of $2.4B options expiry

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BTC faces $2.4B options expiry

Highlights

Bitcoin trades between $95,130 and $95,900 after Thursday’s breakout fades below 100 EMA
$2.4B BTC options expiry today raises risk of volatility near current price zone
Put-to-call ratio at 1.26 shows traders still tilted toward downside protection

The retreat on Thursday broke a four-day bullish stretch that had driven Bitcoin decisively above a nearly two-month consolidation ceiling. That stretch of gains had been fueled by strong technical breakouts and positive market sentiment. However, Thursday’s 1.7% loss saw Bitcoin close below its 100-day exponential moving average near $95,900, raising questions about the sustainability of the breakout and whether it marked the start of a broader uptrend or a false breakout.

Bitcoin price chart (Jan 2026). Source: Tradingview

Since the latter part of Thursday’s North American session, price action has consolidated tightly between $95,130 and $95,900. This zone has held firm as traders assess the durability of the early January rally. Despite breaking through consolidation resistance earlier in the week, Bitcoin’s inability to sustain gains above the 100-day EMA has kept bulls in check. Technically, failure to reclaim $95,900 could expose Bitcoin to a deeper retracement.

$2.4B options expiry keeps BTC pinned above $92,000 max pain zone

Derivatives data from Deribit suggests the market is preparing for a critical inflection point. Options expiring today hold a total notional value of $2.84 billion, of which Bitcoin accounts for approximately $2.4 billion. This heavy concentration suggests market participants are heavily exposed to price outcomes today. Bitcoin’s spot price is still trading well above its max pain level at $92,000, meaning the potential for volatility remains high as traders adjust or unwind positions heading into expiry.

Despite the breakout earlier this week, positioning in the options market paints a defensive tone. The put-to-call ratio stands at 1.26, reflecting 14,050 put contracts compared to 11,170 call contracts. This suggests that traders have maintained a bias toward downside protection. That skew, along with the current struggle below the 100-day EMA, adds weight to the short-term uncertainty, even as price trades well above the prior consolidation zone.

The expiry outcome is likely to determine the next directional move to $100,000 or $92,000

A bullish resolution to the current consolidation would require a decisive move above $95,900. If the price holds above that level through the expiry and reclaims short-term moving averages, the next targets sit at $98,000, followed by the psychological $100,000 barrier. Sustained buying pressure and options rollovers could fuel that upside.

On the other hand, failure to hold $95,130 may lead to a pullback toward $94,000 and possibly $92,000, especially if profit-taking accelerates after options expiry. A downside break would suggest that the breakout lacked institutional conviction and that traders are rebalancing risk ahead of more macro events next week.

In a recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin pulled back from the $98,000 high while holding just above the 100-day EMA. Spot ETF inflows reached $843.6 million as IBIT and FBTC led fresh accumulation.

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