Bernstein сalls Bitcoin selloff the weakest bearish scenario in history, reaffirming $150,000 target

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Yaroslav Dmytrenko

10.02.2026

Bernstein сalls Bitcoin selloff the weakest bearish scenario in history, reaffirming $150,000 target — Bitcoin risks falling to $50,000, though Bernstein remains confident of his $150,000 target

Bernstein has reaffirmed its $150,000 Bitcoin price target, calling the recent decline the “weakest bear market scenario in history,” even as some traders warn that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000. So who should investors believe?

Bernstein analysts said the latest Bitcoin sell-off reflects a “self-inflicted confidence crisis” rather than structural damage, describing it as the weakest bear-market setup the asset has ever seen. Based on this assessment, Bernstein reiterated its $150,000 BTC price target in its latest investor note.

As reported by The Block, the firm noted that none of the typical bear-market catalysts have emerged, pointing to the absence of major failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns.

Analysts added that Bitcoin continues to trade as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven, helping explain its underperformance versus gold amid tighter financial conditions.

Bernstein also dismissed concerns about the rise of artificial intelligence, arguing that blockchains and programmable wallets are well positioned for the emerging agent-based economy, which requires global financial rails.

In addition, Bernstein said potential quantum computing risks warrant preparation but are not unique to Bitcoin, noting that all critical digital systems will eventually migrate to quantum-resistant standards. Stronger corporate balance sheets and diversified miner revenues have also reduced the risk of forced selling.

Against this backdrop, Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchased an additional 1,142 BTC for roughly $90 million at an average price of $78,815, as the total value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings remains below its cost basis. Strategy’s total holdings now stand at 714,644 BTC, worth about $49.2 billion.

The purchases were funded through at-the-market sales of Strategy’s Class A common stock, with the company reporting that around $8 billion worth of MSTR shares remains available under the program.

Strategy executives and industry analysts recently said balance-sheet risks remain limited, noting that Bitcoin would need to fall to around $8,000 over several years before debt servicing becomes a serious concern.

Macroeconomic headwinds intensify

Meanwhile, macroeconomic developments this week are unlikely to support crypto prices. Cointelegraph reported a broad consensus that Bitcoin could set new macro lows, potentially falling to $50,000 or below.

This week’s key event is the release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data, as sharp moves in precious metals begin to fade.

“Earnings season is in full swing and macro uncertainty remains elevated,” wrote The Kobeissi Letter in its weekly outlook.

Since the announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair nominee, President Donald Trump has failed to calm market concerns over future monetary policy. His pick, Kevin Warsh, is widely seen as opposing looser financial conditions—a factor that has already weighed on risk-asset returns.

As a result, markets see little chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s mid-March meeting, even though Warsh is not expected to take office until May. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows an 82% probability that rates will remain unchanged.

Mosaic Asset Company cited “persistent” U.S. inflation as the reason for tighter Fed policy and heightened market anxiety.

“The combination of stronger economic growth and persistently high core inflation could begin to challenge rate expectations across the yield curve,” Mosaic said in its latest Market Mosaic newsletter, adding that these conditions have been a key catalyst behind this year’s sell-off in growth and AI-related stocks.

Gold climbed back toward $5,000 early in the week, while U.S. equity futures and Bitcoin rebounded from Friday’s lows.

For both Bitcoin and broader risk markets, a strengthening U.S. dollar is becoming an increasingly important source of potential volatility. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which rebounded after falling to multi-year lows near 95.5 in late January, has struggled to regain the 98 level.

A strong dollar typically pressures Bitcoin, and while correlations have shifted repeatedly in recent years, the longer-term trend could eventually provide a more supportive backdrop for bulls. Analysts, however, remain divided on whether the current dollar rebound marks the start of a prolonged rally.

Additional uncertainty comes from a new era of fiscal policy in Japan. Crypto markets remain highly sensitive to Japan-related developments, with some theories even linking yen carry trades to last week’s Bitcoin price drop.

Following the re-election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japanese equities surged to record highs, with analysis now pointing to negative spillovers for U.S. investment products and cryptocurrencies.

“San ae Takaichi’s decisive victory marks Japan’s shift toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for currency depreciation,” wrote XWIN Research Japan in a blog post on CryptoQuant.

XWIN cited research warning of a “slowing inflow” into U.S. equity ETFs as a weaker yen boosts the appeal of Japanese bonds—leaving Bitcoin exposed to short-term downside risks.

As we wrote, Crypto ETPs see reduced outflows, hinting at possible market bottom

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