Account tied to Farage associate loses $675 000 on Polymarket

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Highlights

Account linked to George Cottrell reportedly lost $675K on Polymarket bets.
Wagers included U.S. strikes on Iran and Keir Starmer’s resignation.
The case raises political ethics and regulation concerns around prediction markets

February 28 – an unlucky day

According to the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph, the account “GCottrell93”, which resembles George Cottrell’s name and birth year, wagered around $550,000 that the United States would not strike Iran before February 28. The position was wiped out after a military operation began on February 26, although the account had previously won several bets predicting no strikes on earlier February dates.

The same account also appears to have lost about $125,000 after betting that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would leave office before February 28.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT previously expressed “high confidence” that the “GCottrell93” account belongs to the long-time associate of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who helped raise millions of pounds for Farage’s political initiatives, including UKIP and the Brexit Party.

Notably, George Cottrell’s mother, aristocrat Fiona Cottrell, became one of Reform UK’s largest donors in 2025.

According to The Daily Telegraph, Cottrell has a long personal history with betting. UK court documents describe him as a member of a professional betting syndicate linked to Tony Bloom, the owner of Premier League club Brighton & Hove Albion.

Professional gambler and political donor

The syndicate, connected to the analytics firm Starlizard, reportedly generated hundreds of millions of dollars in winnings. Cottrell allegedly earned significant sums by copying the group’s bets.

In 2016, Cottrell was arrested while attending the Republican National Convention in Chicago alongside Farage. U.S. prosecutors charged him with conspiracy to commit money laundering, wire fraud, blackmail, and extortion after meetings with undercover federal agents in Las Vegas.

As part of a plea agreement, he pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud and served eight months in prison.

Last month, Cottrell released a book titled “How to Launder Money: A Guide for Law Enforcement, Prosecutors, and Politicians.” The launch event was attended by Farage and senior figures from Reform UK.

The controversy surrounding the alleged Polymarket bets has also sparked debate about political ethics. The prediction market platform is not registered in the UK, yet remains accessible to users through cryptocurrency wallets, making regulatory oversight difficult.

More broadly, the case highlights the growing influence of prediction markets on political and geopolitical speculation. Platforms like Polymarket are increasingly used to bet on elections, geopolitical events, and government decisions, often serving as a real-time indicator of market expectations. However, participation by political donors or individuals close to political leaders may raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest and the use of insider information.

As we wrote, Million-dollar Iran bets draw insider trading scrutiny

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