Polymarket traders seek refund after UMA whale swayed $500 billion Ukraine-U.S. mineral deal forecast

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Polymarket traders seek refund due to UMA whale's actions

Key Takeaways:

- The deal involves Ukraine transferring control over strategic mineral resources, including uranium, titanium, lithium, and others valued at a minimum of $500 billion.

- Most Polymarket traders had bet the agreement would not be signed by early April.

- A whale with over $7 million in UMA tokens allegedly manipulated the outcome by influencing the oracle vote.

- Traders on the losing side are demanding refunds, arguing that no official signing has occurred. Polymarket is attempting to defuse the situation.

Do whales control global events now?

According to Wu Blockchain, the Polymarket platform experienced a governance attack after a whale allegedly spent millions in UMA tokens to sway the results of a market forecasting whether a deal between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be signed. The agreement would involve transferring rights over rare and strategic mineral deposits to the U.S.

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“The UMA whale used voting power to manipulate the oracle outcome, enabling a false market resolution and securing profits. The whale funneled 5 million tokens through three wallets—25% of the vote. Polymarket is working to prevent this from happening again,” Wu Blockchain reported.

The market attracted more than $7 million in betting volume. A majority had placed “NO” bets on the deal being finalized by April. Following the vote outcome, many traders expressed outrage, pointing out that no official announcement confirmed the deal’s signing.

According to Reuters, on March 25, Trump stated that he expected a revenue-sharing agreement with Ukraine “to be signed soon.” However, traders argue this does not qualify as a formalized agreement.

“This is a joke. Zelensky just said they are considering a larger deal. That means no deal exists—outright fraud,” one Polymarket user wrote.

Negotiations are ongoing to expand the U.S.-Ukraine resource agreement to include ports, export infrastructure, and nuclear power facilities.

“At this rate, whoever holds the most UMA in 2028 will decide the next U.S. president. Polymarket will be a joke,” another user commented.

Polymarket uses UMA’s Optimistic Oracle to settle markets based on real-world events. The UMA protocol relies on community consensus, with token holders acting as “unbiased arbiters” of market outcomes.

Polymarket’s team called the situation “unprecedented” but said no refunds will be issued:

“We’re aware of the situation involving the Ukrainian rare earths market. This market resolved contrary to user expectations and guidance. Unfortunately, since this was not a market failure, we cannot offer refunds,” said a Polymarket spokesperson.

Legal action may be next

Polymarket promised to release more detailed explanations soon and to establish clearer market resolution rules. However, as the deal has not been officially signed, lawsuits from aggrieved users may be on the horizon.

UMA price dynamics for 24 hours. Source: CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, UMA—the governance token used in Polymarket’s voting—has held up well. It’s down 8% over the past month but up more than 11% in the last seven days, trading around $1.44 at the time of writing.

As we wrote, Polymarket, a popular crypto-based prediction platform, is facing criticism from its users following the contentious resolution of a high-stakes market titled “TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?”

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