Chainlink price prediction: Downside risk grows as LINK extends daily loss

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Chainlink drops 7.43% today to $9.16

Highlights

Chainlink's infrastructure enabled the tokenized TreasuryPlus credit fund launch and achieved $28.6 trillion in total transaction value.
LINK's status as a digital commodity was reinforced by U.S. regulatory guidance, but its price faces continued selling pressure.
LINK consolidates near $9.16 with mixed technical signals, high intraday volatility, and a likely trading range of $9.10–$9.60 amid downside risk.

Cross-chain fund activity and regulatory shifts as price pressure persists

TreasuryPlus (TPLUS), a tokenized private credit fund distributed across major financial centers, was launched through an initiative involving EPOCH Digital Credit, Synthesys, and Chainlink, with TPLUS operating across multiple blockchains using Chainlink's CCIP and SmartData for cross-chain data and onchain NAV reporting. Chainlink's infrastructure was also used by Mastercard to enable on-chain crypto purchases, and protocol revenues funded a reserve purchase of 99,103 LINK on January 29, 2026. Chainlink's total transaction value enabled surpassed $28.6 trillion and LINK was classified as a digital commodity by U.S. regulators following recent SEC and CFTC guidance, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought momentum with intraday volatility as buyer exhaustion signals mount

Momentum signals are mixed: D1 MACD is neutral, while ADX signals moderate bullishness, but the HMA direction is bearish. RSI sits at 60.77 (buy zone), yet Stoch RSI and CCI show overbought conditions, flagging possible exhaustion. BBP also reflects overbought and buyer-dominant momentum, though the daily move is down, with price falling 7.43% and trading near the session’s low end, implying seller pressure after the open and high intraday volatility. There was no significant opening gap, and intraday momentum, as measured by AO, modestly supports the prior bullish bias, but sell signals on multiple lower timeframes and overbought oscillators highlight an ongoing divergence between short-term momentum and overextension risks.

Limited upside with downside risks as volatility defines near-term outlook

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $9.10 – $9.60, capturing typical volatility around the current level. The probability of an upward move is very low (less than 20%), making a downward scenario more likely. Baseline scenario: price continues sideways within a tight corridor. If resistance is breached and momentum regains breadth, a bullish extension toward $9.60 is possible. If immediate support ($9.07) fails, a retest of the lower range near $9.10 could quickly materialize as momentum unwinds.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Chainlink shows consolidation near short-term averages but remains weak against long-term resistance. He sees positive developments from regulatory clarity and institutional partnerships but warns these have not improved price sentiment in the face of persistent selling. Momentum indicators are mixed, with overbought signals and no strong direction for upside. "Base case remains sideways; if $9.07 breaks, downside could accelerate quickly."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite vocal community rivalries, Chainlink’s infrastructure plays a vital role in supporting the broader blockchain and fintech ecosystem, often complementing rather than directly competing with other major projects. In the current environment, technicals now point to a heightened risk of downside volatility, with immediate support at $9.07 and a likely test of the lower end of the $9.10–$9.60 trading range if sell momentum persists.

Source of Data: LINK Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.