XRP price prediction: Will new ETFs and commodity status halt the drop? XRP falls 3.69%

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XRP drops 3.69% today to $1.47

Highlights

XRP was classified as a digital commodity by U.S. regulators, leading to approval and launch of multiple spot XRP ETFs with $1 billion in combined assets.
Ripple expanded its U.S. payment reach through a partnership with i-Payout for fast cross-border settlements, supporting ongoing initiatives in banking and tokenization.
XRP trades in a short-term bullish, long-term bearish pattern with mixed momentum, expected to remain range-bound at $1.32–$1.50 as near-term upside probability is low.

ETF approvals and regulatory clarity as selling pressure weighs on price

On March 17, the SEC and CFTC classified XRP as a digital commodity, granting regulatory clarity under U.S. law. Multiple spot XRP ETFs received approval and began trading in the U.S., managed by firms such as Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares, and REX Osprey, collectively reaching about $1 billion in assets. The SEC's amended ETF framework introduced enhanced disclosures and clarified XRP’s regulatory status in ETF baskets. Ripple also formed a partnership with i-Payout to facilitate near-instant cross-border payouts into the U.S. and Canada, accompanied by ongoing expansion efforts in banking, AI, and tokenization use cases, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Divergence among momentum signals as long-term resistance limits upside

Technically, XRP sits above the SMA-20 and SMA-50, but remains significantly below the SMA-200, underscoring lingering long-term bearishness despite short-term upward bias. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $1.4385 acts as immediate support below current trading. Momentum indicators present a mixed outlook: ADX on the daily chart points to a mild uptrend, while MACD is neutral, suggesting unclear trend strength. RSI is at 53, indicating mild buying pressure, CCI is firmly overbought, and Stoch RSI remains neutral, reflecting divergence among oscillators. BBP is positive, with buyers maintaining short-term control, as further confirmed by the Awesome Oscillator’s bullish bias. However, daily trading has turned negative, with a 3.69% drop and a mild gap down at the open, placing the current price in the middle of today’s range at $1.4563 – $1.4784 and signaling moderate volatility and lingering downside pressure.

Downside risk dominates as breakout scenarios hinge on key levels

In the short term, XRP is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $1.32 to $1.50 over the next five sessions, reflecting current market conditions. The probability of further price increases remains low at less than 20%, suggesting a decline is more likely in the immediate future. Baseline expectations see XRP holding a range between $1.32 and $1.50. A break above resistance near $1.50 would introduce a bullish scenario, while a drop below support at $1.32 may trigger a retest of lower levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees short-term technicals for XRP as mildly positive above key moving averages, but notes that persistent trading below the SMA-200 highlights underlying long-term weakness. He emphasizes that while regulatory clarity and ETF inflows are positive, the current sentiment remains under pressure, and momentum signals are mixed. Kharitonov expects XRP to stay bound between $1.32 and $1.50, with a higher probability of further declines. "Until we see a sustained move above $1.50, I remain cautious as upside looks limited and the risk of further downside prevails."

In a recent review, analysts noted that the resolution of Ripple's legal challenges had shifted focus toward XRP's institutional adoption prospects amid evolving U.S. regulatory clarity. Building on this, current market data highlights a consolidation phase within an established trading band, with heightened attention warranted at the $1.50 resistance as a decisive move could reshape near-term momentum.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.