XRP price prediction: Downtrend likely as XRP fails to reclaim $1.44 resistance

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XRP slides 2.59% to $1.4112 today

Highlights

The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, 2026, ending years of U.S. regulatory uncertainty and enabling wider exchange and ETF access.
XRP network usage surged as seen in over 372,000 insufficient reserve errors and Binance XRP reserves sharply dropped from $10 billion to $3.9 billion amid lower trading volumes.
XRP trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum, expected to consolidate between $1.32 and $1.49, while a loss of $1.32 could trigger further declines.

Broader U.S. access and network stress as reserves and volumes shrink

On March 17, 2026, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity, ending securities uncertainty and enabling wider U.S. listings and ETF access. Around the same period, XRP Ledger recorded a peak in insufficient reserve errors, with more than 372,000 cases reflecting increased network usage. XRP reserves on Binance dropped sharply from roughly $10 billion in July 2025 to about $3.9 billion in March 2026, accompanied by reduced trading volumes, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Persistent seller control amid mixed momentum and rising volatility

Technically, XRP remains under pressure, having slipped below the MA-20 ($1.4136), MA-50 ($1.4277), and significantly under the long-term MA-200 ($2.1131), all pointing to the dominance of sellers across timeframes. With the Ichimoku Kijun at $1.4385 acting as immediate resistance, the price hovers near today’s mid-range of $1.3946 to $1.4263. Momentum indicators show a mixed outlook: MACD is neutral, ADX is low but rising, RSI is at 49.90, CCI at 42.96, and Stoch RSI at 41.11, none suggesting strong momentum, while BBP is marginally positive to indicate slight buyer presence without dominance. Intraday weakness and recent bearish moves confirm ongoing selling bias, supported by moderate volatility.

Downside risk prevails as upside breakout seen unlikely

XRP is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $1.32–$1.49 over the next five days, reflecting recent price fluctuations. Upside probability is low (below 20%), making further declines more likely. XRP may consolidate sideways between $1.32 and $1.49, with a bullish scenario only if price closes above $1.44–$1.45, potentially triggering a move toward $1.49. If $1.32 support fails, deeper pullbacks may follow, as most indicators maintain a negative bias.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights that the regulatory breakthrough for XRP in March 2026 lays a strong foundation for future growth. He sees the current consolidation as a reflection of cautious sentiment, with sideways action likely until buyers reclaim key levels. Improved U.S. accessibility and rising network usage bode well over the longer term, even as bearish pressure dominates for now. In the short run, Karapetjanc remains optimistic but recognizes resistance must be broken. "If XRP can close above $1.45 soon, I expect renewed upward momentum and stronger institutional interest to follow."

Previously it was reported that Ripple warned users about a surge in fake Telegram accounts impersonating the company and its executives, urging vigilance against crypto scams. With technical resistance and bearish sentiment still dominating XRP trading, investors should stay alert to both potential market volatility and ongoing fraud risks, especially as price action hovers near critical support and resistance thresholds.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.