Solana price prediction: Bearish bias as SOL struggles with institutional outflows and resistance

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Solana up 0.16% today at $83.77

Highlights

Solana ETFs saw $7.84 million in outflows over three consecutive weeks, signaling sustained institutional capital withdrawal from SOL.
Derivatives market activity revealed $22.98 million in long position liquidations and a negative funding rate, reflecting entrenched bearish sentiment.
SOL trades below key moving averages with weak momentum indicators, and is expected to range between $80.00 and $88.50 amid prevailing downside bias.

Capitulation signals as institutional outflows and long liquidations accelerate

Solana experienced institutional outflows on March 30, 2026, as US spot Solana exchange-traded funds recorded $7.84 million in redemptions, marking the third consecutive week of net negative flows and indicating a shift in capital away from SOL. During the same period, the derivatives market saw liquidations totaling $22.98 million, primarily from long positions, alongside a negative funding rate of -0.0141%, underscoring a bearish trader outlook. Network fundamentals remained stable despite these developments.

Oversold signals clash with weak momentum as sellers maintain control

Daily momentum is weak, with the D1 MACD and ADX signaling a lack of bullish drive. Oversold readings from Stoch RSI and CCI, along with a low RSI (41.58), suggest the market is stretched to the downside but not yet reversing. BBP is negative and flagged as oversold, confirming sellers continue to dominate intraday momentum. No meaningful gap was observed at the open, as today’s session began near the previous close. The current price is near the middle of today’s range ($82.32 — $84.31). Volatility is moderate with an overall tone of sideways consolidation after an initial dip, as oscillators and momentum provide conflicting signals between oversold conditions and ongoing bearish pressure.

Downside favored as volatility bands constrain bullish reversal odds

For the coming week, the expected range is $80.00 — $88.50, keeping movements within a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an advance is very low (less than 20%), making further downside more likely. The baseline scenario is for SOL to remain in a sideways corridor between $80.00 and $88.50. A bullish scenario would require a breakout above the immediate resistance at $88.32, while a bearish scenario would see a sustained drop below $80.00, leading to additional losses. With weekly MA, RSI, ADX, and MACD all negative, sellers continue to dictate the market’s direction.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees continued downside for Solana in the current environment. He notes the negative institutional flows and weak momentum as clear headwinds. However, he emphasizes the resilience in network fundamentals. Karapetjanc remains watchful for any shift in sentiment as capital rotates. "If buyers can reclaim $88.32, short-term optimism could return, but for now, I expect consolidation inside the $80.00 — $88.50 range."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent selling pressure and institutional outflows had established a broadly bearish outlook for Solana. The current analysis confirms this negative bias, as continued ETF redemptions and weak momentum indicators suggest traders should closely monitor the $80.00 level for potential downside acceleration in the near term.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.