Steady price for Solana as $90.00 resistance remains in focus

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Solana rises 0.46% to $85.82 today

Highlights

Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and a U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz triggered risk-off flows, pressuring Solana alongside broader crypto markets.
Regulatory concerns and persistent 4% annual token supply growth without a burn mechanism present structural headwinds for SOL’s institutional adoption and long-term value.
SOL trades in a consolidation phase between $81.00 and $90.00 as weak momentum and mixed technical signals reduce the probability of a breakout in either direction.

Macro stress and new regulations curb Solana ETF inflows

On April 23, escalating geopolitical tensions following the collapse of U.S.–Iran talks and the initiation of a U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz induced a broad flight to safety, placing renewed macro pressure on Solana and other risk assets. Concurrently, heightened concerns over broader crypto regulation have emerged as a near-term risk impacting institutional flows into SOL ETF products. Technical commentary on April 23 corroborated that major price inflections for Solana aligned with elevated Iran-related war tensions, raising structural uncertainty for network liquidity. Structural challenges persist with respect to value capture, as on April 24, the SOL supply continued to expand at 4% annually without a burn mechanism, further complicating the stability and long-term economics of the asset.

Conflicting indicators emerge as Solana stalls near SMA-50

SOL is holding just above the SMA-20 at $84.84 and the SMA-50 at $85.73, with the SMA-200 significantly higher at $122.68. Immediate support stands at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $83.72. Momentum readings are mixed: the D1 MACD points to bullish conditions, but low ADX suggests limited trend strength. The RSI is neutral at 49.98, Stoch RSI shows no extremes, and CCI is also neutral, while BBP on D1 registers an overbought 0.82. Awesome Oscillator readings are neutral, with daily price action showing mild strength within low volatility and intraday movement centered in today’s trading range ($85.01 – $86.34). Conflicting signals across oscillators highlight underlying uncertainty.

Sideways outlook favored as volatility maintains defined range

For the upcoming week, typical volatility for SOL suggests a band between $81.00 and $90.00. Probabilities favor a sideways movement, with consolidation within this corridor likely. A clear push above $90.00 would be needed to trigger bullish momentum, while a drop below $81.00 could reinstate stronger selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Solana facing persistent structural and regulatory headwinds. He notes that major resistance remains around $90.00, while weak trend signals and macro uncertainty limit upside conviction. The outlook stays cautious due to ongoing supply expansion and unclear institutional demand. "As long as SOL trades below $90.00 and regulatory sentiment stays negative, I remain defensive on the asset."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite positive developments such as regulatory clarity and institutional inflows, Solana faced persistent bearish momentum and mixed technical signals, warranting caution among traders. The current market environment adds new complexity, as geopolitical risk and regulatory uncertainty now heighten volatility and reinforce the importance of monitoring the $81.00 to $90.00 zone for early indications of Solana's next major move.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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