Kaspa trades in narrow range as ADX confirms dominant downtrend: weekly review

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Kaspa slips 6.05% this week

Highlights

Kaspa continues to face strong selling pressure, trading below major resistance levels and closing the week at session lows.
Bearish momentum is reinforced by multiple technical indicators signaling ongoing downtrend and limited buying interest.
Expected trading range for the coming week is $0.0320 to $0.0345, with a high probability of further downside if support breaks.

Wallet growth and DeFi use shape sentiment amid technical strengths

Kaspa has seen ongoing network expansion with more than 1.2 million active wallets, reflecting a 15% increase quarter-on-quarter. The project continues to highlight technical advantages, including fast confirmation times and high throughput, while maintaining a total value locked in native DeFi of $15 million. Some holders are using external platforms to generate stablecoin returns, demonstrating evolving investor strategies.

Bearish momentum prevails as indicators reinforce weekly downside

On the weekly chart, KAS remains under key moving averages with the MA-20 at $0.0366 and the MA-50 substantially higher at $0.0604, reinforcing medium- and longer-term bearish sentiment. The MACD gives a Strong Sell signal, the ADX confirms a prevailing downtrend, and the RSI projects a further decline; in contrast, the CCI holds neutral territory and Bull/Bear Power is only slightly positive. Stochastic RSI is in heavily overbought territory, but overall, weekly momentum is decisively negative with limited signals supporting a reversal.

Range-bound outlook as indicators point to low upside next week

For the next 7 days, KAS is expected to trade between $0.0320 and $0.0345, showing little directional impetus. The probability of a price increase is very low, below 20%, as none of the 4 key weekly indicators support a bullish outlook. Consolidation within this range remains the baseline scenario, while a break below $0.0320 would confirm continued bearish control. Only a sustained move above $0.0345 might initiate recovery toward the MA-20.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Kaspa remained stuck under key weekly moving averages and continued to show persistent selling pressure through the week. He points to the strong negative momentum, with the MACD, ADX, and RSI all confirming a bearish structure, while positive fundamentals such as rapid network growth have failed to inspire a turnaround. Kharitonov believes there is little sign of bullish momentum emerging, given the heavy technical resistance at $0.0366 and a low probability of price recovery. He sees any move below $0.0320 as confirmation of continued seller dominance, while a sustained push above $0.0345 is needed to change sentiment. The expert is critical of short-term upside bets with these signals. "As long as Kaspa remains below the MA-20 at $0.0366 this week, I see no reason to expect a bullish reversal."

Previously it was reported that Kaspa faced persistent bearish momentum, with technical signals suggesting limited prospects for a near-term recovery. The latest analysis reaffirms this downbeat outlook, pointing to ongoing consolidation as the prevailing scenario while a break below $0.0320 remains the key downside risk for traders to monitor.

Source of Data: KAS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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