Bitcoin price prediction: Can $78,190 resistance hold? BTC trades flat

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Bitcoin rises 0.61% to $77,983 today

Highlights

BlackRock’s IBIT and other major US Bitcoin ETFs continue to post strong inflows, with BlackRock's holdings reaching a record 806,700 BTC.
Institutional interest intensifies as Strategy Inc. increases its BTC position to over 815,000 coins and Tokyo’s Metaplanet raises $50 million to add another 640–700 BTC.
Technicals reflect bullish momentum but warn of overbought conditions, projecting Bitcoin to consolidate between $73,500 and $81,000 in the next five days.

Record ETF inflows and large holder accumulation as Middle East tensions ease

BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF and several US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to register positive inflows, with BlackRock’s holdings reaching a record 806,700 BTC and total inflows topping $2.4 billion since April 14. Strategy Inc. increased its BTC holdings by 34,000 coins, surpassing 815,000 total, while Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust ETF expanded its position by approximately 120 BTC to a total of 1,834 BTC. Tokyo-based Metaplanet secured $50 million through zero-interest bonds, aiming to increase its treasury by another 640 to 700 BTC. Additionally, Bitcoin shark wallets accumulated 37,920 BTC as tensions in the Middle East eased.

Bullish momentum and overbought signals as price tests resistance

BTC trades above the SMA-20 at $74,455.71 and SMA-50 at $71,349.80, while remaining below the SMA-200 at $85,223.79, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $72,592.47 providing immediate support. The daily range is defined by resistance near $78,190 and support at $77,328.75. The MACD on D1 indicates ongoing upward momentum, ADX reads neutral, and both RSI and CCI sit in bullish territory. Stoch RSI is neutral, BBP signals clear overbought conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms a bullish structure, though oscillators suggest caution due to current overextension.

Consolidation risk rises as upside probability diminishes

Over the next five trading days, BTC is expected to fluctuate within a $73,500 – $81,000 volatility band relative to current levels. There is less than a 20% probability of further sustained gains, suggesting that a consolidation or moderate pullback is more likely as overbought conditions work off. A bullish scenario would require a breakout above $81,000 backed by renewed buying interest, while a close below $73,500 and loss of Ichimoku support could trigger accelerated downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees strong institutional engagement underpinning Bitcoin’s current momentum. He notes that significant ETF inflows and treasury allocations point to sustained investor confidence, even as technical readings indicate some overbought risk. However, Karapetjanc believes that consolidation is probable before any renewed breakout. He maintains a constructive outlook while watching key support and resistance levels. "Institutional flows continue to support the bullish case, and as long as BTC holds above $73,500, the medium-term trend remains positive in my view."

Earlier, analysts noted that while Bitcoin was supported by strong institutional accumulation and ETF inflows, it remained vulnerable to downside risks amid mixed technical signals. With recent inflows from major funds, further accumulation by public companies, and bullish bias in leading indicators, traders should monitor the $81,000 resistance as a potential breakout trigger, while remaining alert to a pullback if overbought conditions fail to resolve.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.