Arthur Hayes sets timeline for Bitcoin to reach $100,000

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Olga Shendetskaya

04.05.2026

Arthur Hayes sets timeline for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 — Bitcoin to hit $100k post-summer, $125k by end of 2026

A prominent cryptocurrency entrepreneur and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has given a specific timeframe for Bitcoin’s return to six-figure territory, saying the cryptocurrency is likely to reach $100,000 after the northern hemisphere summer ends.

Highlights

Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 after the northern hemisphere summer due to rising dollar liquidity.
He sees potential for $125,000 by the end of 2026.
Bitcoin is already outperforming Nasdaq and tech stocks.
Geopolitical risks from Iran persist, but markets appear to be largely ignoring them for now.

Liquidity-driven outlook

Arthur Hayes spoke at the Cointelegraph booth at Bitcoin Vegas and answered questions about the price of Bitcoin.

“I think after summer in the northern hemisphere we will reach $100,000,” Hayes said. He attributed the expected rally primarily to improving dollar liquidity, fueled by military financing through commercial banks in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Hayes noted that Bitcoin is already outperforming both the Nasdaq and U.S. technology stocks as a result of this liquidity dynamic, and he expects that outperformance to continue into the fall. When asked about new all-time highs this year, he responded with measured optimism: “I think by the end of the year we could break $125,000.”

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Iran remains key risk

Hayes acknowledged the ongoing conflict with Iran as the main potential spoiler for his forecast but said markets are largely pricing it out. He pointed to relatively stable oil prices as evidence that sufficient crude is still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz despite political rhetoric.

“If we assume that the war with Iran doesn’t lead to any serious consequences, then I think the markets won’t pay attention to it,” he said. “There’s already enough information on the streets, even despite politicians saying everything is close.”

Macro view shapes crypto outlook

Hayes’ comments reflect a broader shift among prominent traders toward macroeconomic factors rather than pure technical analysis.

His forecast underscores the growing importance of global liquidity conditions and central bank policies in driving Bitcoin’s price action.

In an earlier report, we noted that Arthur Hayes called the crypto market a no-trade zone.

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