Arthur Hayes calls crypto market a no-trade zone

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Arthur Hayes calls crypto market a no-trade zone

Highlights

Arthur Hayes called the current crypto market a no-trade zone and said Maelstrom barely traded in Q1 apart from adding to its HYPE position.
He sees the main risks as agentic AI and the war involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Hayes still sees potential for BTC to reach $80,000 to $90,000, but only after the Fed returns to injecting liquidity.

Two forces creating market paralysis

Hayes revealed that his investment fund, Maelstrom, was largely inactive during the first quarter, making only one notable move—increasing its long position in Hyperliquid. He attributes the current market stagnation to the combined pressure of AI-driven disruption and the ongoing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.

On the technological front, Hayes warns that rapid advances in artificial intelligence—which he refers to as “claws”—are “beginning to destroy jobs in flexible Western labor markets.” This, he says, could trigger a severe deflationary spiral and a collapse in consumer spending.

On the geopolitical side, the U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the breakdown of peace talks with Iran, continues to inject uncertainty into global markets. Hayes notes that while he has no insider information on military decisions, the public narrative and basic calculations suggest prolonged instability.

Three scenarios for Bitcoin

Despite maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin, Hayes is not rushing to add to his positions at current levels. He outlines three possible scenarios:

First, the conflict ends and a pre-war status quo returns, but AI continues to suppress consumer demand, forcing the Federal Reserve to print money to prevent banking collapses and a crypto market crash.

Second, Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz and demands payment in yuan, sanctioned dollars, or cryptocurrency, triggering a fresh wave of dollar selling by central banks and putting downward pressure on Bitcoin, bonds, and equities.

Third, Trump escalates military action against Iran, leading to a broader regional crisis. In response, central banks worldwide would be compelled to inject massive liquidity to stabilize the global financial system.

In all three cases, Hayes believes Bitcoin could eventually climb to between $80,000 and $90,000. However, he insists he will not buy more until the Federal Reserve provides clear signs of liquidity support, citing serious risks of consumer loan defaults and banking stress.

What the market is meant to take from this note

Hayes’ analysis stands out for its blend of macroeconomic insight, geopolitical awareness, and deep market intuition.

In a time of high uncertainty, his cautious stance serves as a sobering reminder that even the most committed Bitcoin bulls are choosing to wait for clearer signals before committing more capital.

It was earlier reported that Arthur Hayes warns Bitcoin stays tied to U.S. SaaS tech outlook.

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