Bitcoin gains broaden as ETF inflows, whale buying support rally

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Bitcoin gains broaden on ETF rally

Highlights

Institutional inflows into U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs surpassed $700 million over five consecutive trading days, marking the strongest demand streak since May.
On-chain data shows bitcoin whales have increased accumulation over the past two months, while long-term holders now underpin a more balanced market outlook.
Impending U.S. Treasury bill issuance totaling $56 billion on Tuesday, $37 billion on Thursday, and $13 billion on Friday could pressure risk assets and limit bitcoin upside short-term.

Institutional and on-chain demand build support

As reported by CoinDesk, optimism over reports that the White House has agreed to the wording of an ethics package for the Clarity Act is improving expectations that the long-delayed legislation can move forward in Congress and strengthen the case for deeper institutional participation.

The clearest source of current demand comes from institutions investing through U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSoValue data cited in the report, these funds have drawn more than $700 million over five straight trading days, the longest inflow streak since May. Tagus Capital says this renewed institutional interest contrasts with the heavy selling pressure and record redemptions seen earlier in the summer, including $7.5 billion between mid-May and June.

On-chain data also points to accumulation by longer-term holders, defined as addresses that have held BTC for at least six months. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, says CryptoQuant data shows large bitcoin whales have been increasing positions over the past two months even as medium-sized wallets sell, a divergence he describes as a constructive medium-term signal. Glassnode adds that market conditions look more balanced than a month ago, with long-term conviction supporting prices while speculative participation remains contained.

Derivatives activity and liquidity risks shape outlook

Participation is also increasing in bitcoin futures and options, adding another layer of support to the rally. The report says a trader or group of traders recently bought large bull call spreads targeting $72,000 by month-end, suggesting confidence that upside momentum can continue if technical levels hold.

The market is also watching chart signals closely. Bitcoin has accelerated after breaking above its 50-day simple moving average, and a sustained hold above that level could attract additional buyers and push the price toward the 100-day average near $70,173. The next major resistance is the 200-day average just above $72,800, and a decisive move through that level would signal that the bear market that began in October last year has ended.

Near-term risks remain, especially from U.S. Treasury issuance that could pull liquidity from the financial system and pressure risk assets. Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management, says Treasury bill settlements are expected to bring net new issuance of $56 billion, followed by another $37 billion on Thursday and a smaller coupon settlement of $13 billion on Friday. He says heavy bill issuance is likely to continue until Labor Day, creating a headwind for risk assets through the summer.

In our earlier article, we covered the U.S. Treasury’s rollout of a government-wide payment verification process aimed at preventing federal payments from being sent to deceased individuals. The program has already screened hundreds of millions of transactions and was strengthened by permanent access to the Social Security Full Death Master File, reinforcing a broader federal push to tighten controls and curb fraud across public disbursements.

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