Solana moves up amid resistance at MA-20 near $95.89: weekly review

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Solana gains 3.28% this week

Highlights

Solana remains in a broader downtrend, trading below major moving averages and facing sustained selling pressure.
Momentum indicators present mixed signals, with bearish MACD and ADX readings but overbought Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power suggesting buyer activity.
SOL is expected to range between $83.80 and $99.10 over the next week, with a higher probability of downside movement absent a break above $99 resistance.

Network upgrades and institutional flows drive sentiment despite corporate losses

Solana's network deployed the P-Token upgrade on mainnet, significantly improving efficiency by reducing compute unit usage by up to 98% on common token operations. Institutional interest continues, with spot ETFs registering notable inflows and Upexi and Forward Industries emerging as major corporate holders of SOL tokens, despite Upexi reporting a $109.3 million quarterly net loss related to Solana holdings. The asset also saw heightened network activity, including increased decentralized exchange volumes and active investor focus on the upcoming Alpenglow upgrade, which is set to reduce network finality times.

Conflicting technical signals as solana stays under key resistance levels

Technical analysis on the weekly (W1) timeframe reveals that SOL remains under pressure, trading below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the MA-20 at $95.89 as the closest resistance level. Volatility for the week reached 12.34%, while $83.80 serves as key weekly support and $99.10 as main resistance. The MACD indicates a strong sell, ADX signals a sell trend, and the RSI maintains a sell bias, though Bull/Bear Power and Stochastic RSI indicate overbought conditions, contributing to a conflicting technical environment.

Sideways range expected as weak indicators cap breakout potential

For the next seven days, the expected trading range is $83.80 to $99.10, reflecting current weekly volatility. A sideways movement within this corridor is the most probable scenario, as none of the four main W1 indicators favor a buy signal. Upside is limited, with less than a 20% probability of a breakout above $99.10, while downside risk remains if support at $83.80 gives way under persistent selling pressure.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees Solana staying pressured below key weekly moving averages after a modest bounce this week. Ongoing institutional inflows and network upgrades have supported sentiment, but price remains capped by resistance at $99.10. Major indicators point to conflicting signals, with technicals biased toward a sideways to slightly negative outlook. He believes the $83.80–$99.10 corridor will contain most trading as sentiment and volatility remain elevated. "Until we see a break above $99.10 or a loss of $83.80, I expect mostly rangebound price action with tactical opportunities for nimble traders."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was likely to remain rangebound as institutional flows and recent protocol upgrades failed to spark a clear directional move. With persistent technical weakness but ongoing network and ETF developments, traders should watch for potential volatility around the $83.80 support and $99.10 resistance levels, as breakout odds remain limited in the coming week.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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