What is behind THORChain's recent drop in value today

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Thorchain slides 18.97% today on breach

Highlights

THORChain suffered a major cross-chain exploit in May 2026, incurring losses estimated at $10–$10.8 million across multiple blockchains.
Trading remains entirely halted as the team investigates the breach with external security firms after a 12-hour global operations pause.
RUNE/USD faces heavy bearish pressure below key moving averages, with a projected range of $0.44–$0.51 and low rebound probability.

Market confidence hit as cross-chain exploit halts trading

THORChain experienced a major cross-chain exploit in mid-May 2026, with losses estimated between $10 million and $10.8 million across several networks including Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Base. Blockchain investigators identified attacker-linked wallets holding multiple millions in assets, and in response, THORChain halted all trading, signing, and swap operations for approximately 12 hours. Trading remains paused while the team and external security firms continue to assess the impact of the breach.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees clear technical weakness in RUNE, with price below key moving averages and sellers firmly positioned. He notes that the recent exploit has seriously damaged market confidence and increased downside volatility. Technical indicators send mixed and conflicted signals, reinforcing uncertainty and reluctance among traders. The halted trading activity signals lingering risk, while bearish momentum dominates the short-term setup. "Given the combination of technical breakdown, sentiment shock from the hack, and lack of recovery signals, I expect further pressure on RUNE until support at $0.44 is firmly tested or reclaimed," says Kharitonov.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, remains confident about THORChain’s longer-term prospects despite the recent setback. He sees the incident as a stress test for resilience that could lead to improved protocols and renewed institutional interest. While the short-term range is tight, structure and volatility present opportunities for strategic positioning. Karapetjanc notes that proactive security responses and external involvement signal a commitment to recovery. "Bullish structure remains intact with further growth expected once operations resume and sentiment stabilizes," says Karapetjanc.

Mixed momentum and conflicting signals muddy short-term direction

RUNE/USD is currently trading below the 20-day ($0.5468) and 200-day ($0.5412) simple moving averages and sits just above the 50-day ($0.4675) level, signaling ongoing short- and long-term pressure from sellers. The nearest dynamic resistance comes from the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.5250, with the MA-50 at $0.4675 now acting as immediate support. Momentum signals are mixed: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows strong bullish sentiment on the daily chart, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) indicates high trend strength. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) both flag a sell or neutral bias, and the Stochastic RSI has moved into oversold territory, suggesting price exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) shows buyers are currently in control, though recent daily performance counters this, with the price down $0.11, a sharp 18.97% drop after opening with a downside gap of about $0.088. The price sits near the intraday low, and volatility is elevated at 5.56%. The overall tone is bearish with heavy pressure after the open. This coincides with conflicting oscillator and momentum signals, highlighting uncertainty in near-term direction.

Earlier, analysts noted that THORChain was experiencing mixed technical momentum and heightened volatility, reflecting a market in transition. The recent exploit and ongoing pause in trading mark a significant escalation in risk, making the $0.44 support level critical to monitor for further downside in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: RUNE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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