Uniswap tumbles as rival SushiSwap forks pressure its market share

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Uniswap drops 7.06% today to $3.05

Highlights

Uniswap v3's concentrated liquidity feature has increased capital efficiency up to 4000-fold, reinforcing its lead with roughly 60% DEX market share.
Ongoing protocol upgrades and UNI token governance support Uniswap's role as DEX infrastructure, despite persistent competition from forks like SushiSwap.
UNI trades below major moving averages with momentum and oscillators confirming a strong bearish trend; price is expected to consolidate between $2.95 and $3.20, with a sub-20% probability of near-term upside.

Concentrated liquidity and competition shape Uniswap’s market dominance

Uniswap introduced concentrated liquidity with its v3 update, allowing liquidity providers to allocate capital within custom price ranges and reportedly increasing capital efficiency by up to 4000 times compared to v2. This development has supported the platform’s ability to maintain a roughly 60% share of decentralized exchange transaction volume, cementing its position as a central infrastructure in the DEX landscape. The platform’s AMM design and its system of governance through the UNI token continue to facilitate direct token swaps and protocol upgrades, though competition from alternative forks such as SushiSwap persists.

Oversold signals deepen as support zones break amid weak momentum

On the technical side, UNI is trading below the SMA-20 of $3.5623, the SMA-50 of $3.3775, and the SMA-200 of $4.4840. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $3.6225 represents immediate resistance. Momentum remains weak as the MACD continues signaling "Sell" and the ADX confirms low trend strength. The RSI stands at 36.07, while both the Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold territory (CCI at -172.0). BBP remains negative, indicating sellers retain the upper hand intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator reads as neutral. Overall, most signals confirm oversold technical conditions, but without divergence to suggest an imminent reversal.

Sideways trading likely as bearish momentum curbs breakout odds

For the coming week, UNI is expected to consolidate in a typical volatility corridor between $2.95 and $3.20. Technical momentum remains subdued, and there is a less than 20% probability of upside given the confluence of bearish readings on the weekly MA, MACD, and RSI. The baseline case is for continued sideways trading near current levels, with a breakout above the $3.62 resistance needed to attract renewed buying interest. Conversely, a sustained move below $2.95 would likely confirm fresh selling and open the path to further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees Uniswap’s fundamental positioning as resilient despite current technical selling pressure. The expert notes that sustained 60% DEX market share and the adoption of concentrated liquidity showcase core platform strength. However, he flags that momentum signals and resistance at $3.62 suggest buyers need clear catalysts before a reversal. "Pending a decisive move above $3.62, I remain constructive on UNI’s longer-term outlook thanks to its leading DEX fundamentals, but I would wait for renewed technical strength before adding risk."

Previously it was reported that Uniswap users faced significant phishing threats through malicious Google Ads impersonating the platform. While technical indicators reflect ongoing bearish momentum, traders should remain vigilant not only for downside price risk below $2.95 but also for potential scams exploiting periods of market weakness.

Source of Data: UNI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.