Avalanche price prediction: Will $7.40 support hold as AVAX tumbles 7.75%?

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Avalanche slides 7.75% today to $7.66

Highlights

BlackRock's BUIDL fund has become Avalanche's largest real-world asset, pushing total tokenized assets on the network to $1.16 billion.
The surge in institutional adoption has increased Avalanche’s activity and visibility, despite ongoing pressure in broader crypto markets.
AVAX trades below key moving averages, with technicals signaling strong selling pressure and a high-probability downside target between $7.40 and $7.92.

Real-world asset growth as BlackRock fund boosts network visibility

BlackRock's BUIDL fund was reported by thedefiant.io to have become the largest real-world asset on Avalanche, reaching $625 million in assets and raising the network's total tokenized asset value to an all-time high of $1.16 billion. This milestone represents a significant increase in real-world asset adoption and institutional use of Avalanche's blockchain infrastructure. These developments have increased activity and visibility for the network, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum persists as moving averages and indicators align

On the hourly chart, AVAX trades below both the MA-20 at $8.03 and the MA-50 at $8.24, with further downside under the long-term MA-200 at $10.78 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $7.94 serves as immediate resistance, constraining any attempted rebounds. Among momentum indicators, MACD and ADX both indicate Sell signals, while RSI reads 36.2 (Sell) and CCI is in Oversold territory; BBP also signals continued seller dominance. Meanwhile, Stoch RSI and Awesome Oscillator are Neutral, revealing a mild divergence between trend signals and some oscillators.

High downside risk as resistance caps rebound and consolidation prevails

In the next 2–3 trading days, AVAX is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band between $7.40 and $7.92. The likelihood of a significant upward reversal is currently very low, while the probability of further downward movement remains very high. Basing on present conditions, the baseline scenario is for consolidation inside this range. A bullish scenario would require a clear break above the $7.94 resistance, while a bearish scenario could unfold if price falls below the $7.40 support, continuing the prevailing downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, highlights the strong institutional interest shown by BlackRock's BUIDL fund moving $625 million onto Avalanche. He sees that increased adoption and network activity have not shielded AVAX from prevailing negative price momentum. Technical signals remain bearish, with price stuck below all key moving averages and downside risk elevated. "Until AVAX reclaims resistance at $7.94, my view stays cautious and defensive on any upside attempts."

Previously it was reported that Avalanche faced persistent bearish momentum, with technical indicators highlighting ongoing downside risks despite growing institutional participation. The current analysis reinforces this outlook as selling pressure intensifies, suggesting traders closely monitor the $7.40 support as a crucial level for potential renewed downside in the near term.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.