JPMorgan warns of crypto market risks ahead of second half

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JPMorgan warns of crypto market

Highlights

JPMorgan has shifted its digital-asset view from positive to cautious.
Strategy’s 32 BTC sale was small but raised questions about future funding.
JPMorgan sees less than a 50% chance that the CLARITY Act will pass this year.

Strategy sale raises funding questions

JPMorgan said Strategy’s recent sale of 32 Bitcoin was small in scale but important as a signal. The bank’s concern is not the size of that transaction but whether the company may have to continue selling Bitcoin to fund dividends on its preferred stock.

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Strategy remains one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, which makes any change in its treasury behavior closely watched by the market. JPMorgan said the company’s current dollar reserves cover only about 6.3 months of dividend payments, while annual preferred stock dividends are estimated at roughly $1.7 billion.

If investors begin to believe that the company will rely on Bitcoin sales to meet dividend obligations, it could weigh on sentiment toward Bitcoin and other digital assets.

CLARITY Act moves toward a Senate fight

The second major factor is regulation. JPMorgan has warned that the legislative window for the CLARITY Act is narrowing, even as the bill has gained its strongest momentum yet in Washington. The House passed H.R. 3633 in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee recently advanced the bill 15-9.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis has increased pressure on lawmakers as the bill moves toward the Senate floor. She said the committee stage had been cleared and signaled that the next fight would be on the floor, framing the bill as too close to abandon now.

The legislation is one of the most closely watched crypto market-structure bills in Congress. It is designed to clarify whether digital assets should fall under the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, replacing years of case-by-case enforcement with clearer federal rules.

Still, the bill is not close to finished. It must pass the full Senate, be reconciled with the House version, and then go to the president for signature. JPMorgan now sees the chance of passage this year at below 50%, making the bill a key uncertainty for the second-half crypto outlook.

Market confidence depends on execution

The stakes are large because both issues affect the same question: whether crypto can keep attracting capital without fresh pressure from corporate balance sheets or Washington delays. Strategy’s dividend burden could influence Bitcoin sentiment if investors price in repeated sales. The CLARITY Act, meanwhile, could determine whether institutions get the regulatory framework they need to expand in the U.S.

For the second half of the year, JPMorgan’s message is that crypto’s path looks less dependent on broad risk appetite and more tied to execution.

It was earlier reported that JPMorgan plans to oppose CLARITY Act as Dimon attacks Coinbase lobbying push.

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